Smead Value Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Smead Value Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Smead price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smead using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smead charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Smead Value is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Smead Value Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Smead Value Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smead Value Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 83.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.09.

Smead Value Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Smead Value Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smead Value mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smead Value mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Smead Value Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Smead Value. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Smead Value

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smead Value Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 77.93 78.88 92.58 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 73.95 74.90 92.58 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 81.24 83.56 85.89 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Smead Value. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Smead Value's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Smead Value's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Smead Value Fund.

Smead Value After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Smead Value Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Smead Value Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Smead Value Hype Timeline

Smead Value Fund is at this time traded for 84.04. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.29. Smead is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 78.88. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -6.27%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Smead Value is about 38.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.75. The company last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smead Value to cross-verify your projections.

Smead Value Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Smead Value

For every potential investor in Smead, whether a beginner or expert, Smead Value's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smead Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smead. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smead Value's price trends.

Smead Value Related Equities

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Smead Value Market Strength Events

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