Savers Value Stock Forward View

Key Indicators . Naive Prediction . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Savers Value Village
SVV Stock   8.45  0.22  2.67%   
Savers Value's Naive Prediction forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Naive Prediction model projects Savers Value at 8.07 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Naive Prediction output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
A naive forecasting model for Savers Value is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Savers Value Village on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Savers Value at 8.07 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 10.92 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Savers Value's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Savers Value  Savers Value Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This forecast for Savers Value frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 5.16 and upside near 10.98. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
8.45
5.16
Downside
8.07
Expected Value
10.98
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Savers Value stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.116
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.179
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0208
SAESum of the absolute errors10.919
The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that Savers Value price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for Savers Value

Volume-weighted price analysis for Savers Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line identify shifts in Savers momentum before they appear in raw price.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Savers Value Related Equities

These stocks are related to Savers Value within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Peer pricing is more meaningful when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Savers Value Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Savers Value Village, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Savers Value.
Accumulation Distribution0.0352
Daily Balance Of Power0.7333
Rate Of Daily Change1.03
Day Median Price8.37
Day Typical Price8.4
Market Facilitation Index0.3
Price Action Indicator0.19
Period Momentum Indicator0.22

Savers Value Risk Indicators

Analyzing Savers Value's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for savers stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Savers Value.
Mean Deviation2.42
Standard Deviation2.91
Variance8.45
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Savers Value Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Savers Value is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Comparing short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative provides a more grounded view.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding162.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments85.9 M

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