SCHWAB HEALTH Mutual Fund Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average

SWHFX Fund  USD 24.37  0.17  0.70%   
SCHWAB HEALTH's 4 Period Moving Average forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects SCHWAB HEALTH at 24.27 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The 4 Period Moving Average output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
The four-period moving average forecast for Schwab Health Care replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the four preceding closing prices. This smoothing window is wide enough to dampen short-term noise while still responding to recent price shifts in SCHWAB HEALTH.

4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts SCHWAB HEALTH at 24.27 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 14.47 .
This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks SCHWAB HEALTH's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

SCHWAB HEALTH's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 23.30 and upside around 25.23 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Market Value
24.37
24.27
Expected Value
25.23

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for SCHWAB HEALTH mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.2333
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0825
MADMean absolute deviation0.2494
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.01
SAESum of the absolute errors14.4675
The model is suited for higher-volatility price series where a two-period average would be too reactive. It does not extrapolate a trend equation, so its forecasting utility is limited to one or two periods ahead. Tighter error metrics (lower MAD/MAPE) indicate that SCHWAB HEALTH price movement is well-captured by this smoothing window.

Other Forecasting Options for SCHWAB HEALTH

Analyzing SCHWAB HEALTH's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in SCHWAB HEALTH's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.

SCHWAB HEALTH Related Equities

SCHWAB HEALTH's market space within the Health space is illustrated by the firms listed below. Looking at SCHWAB HEALTH's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

SCHWAB HEALTH Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Schwab Health Care, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in SCHWAB HEALTH.

SCHWAB HEALTH Risk Indicators

Analyzing SCHWAB HEALTH's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for schwab health mutual fund. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for SCHWAB HEALTH.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.