Swire Properties Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SWPFF Stock | USD 2.95 0.00 0.00% |
Swire Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Swire Properties' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Swire Properties' pink sheet price is roughly 66. This usually implies that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors as of 26th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Swire, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Swire Properties hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Swire Properties Limited from the perspective of Swire Properties response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Swire Properties Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.89. Swire Properties after-hype prediction price | USD 2.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Swire |
Swire Properties Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Swire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Swire using various technical indicators. When you analyze Swire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Swire Properties Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Swire Properties Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Swire Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Swire Properties' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Swire Properties Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Swire Properties | Swire Properties Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Swire Properties Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Swire Properties' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Swire Properties' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.08 and 4.85, respectively. We have considered Swire Properties' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Swire Properties pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Swire Properties pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.006 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.032 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.8907 |
Predictive Modules for Swire Properties
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Swire Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Swire Properties After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Swire Properties at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Swire Properties or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Swire Properties, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Swire Properties Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Swire Properties' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Swire Properties' historical news coverage. Swire Properties' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.08 and 4.82, respectively. We have considered Swire Properties' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Swire Properties is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Swire Properties is based on 3 months time horizon.
Swire Properties Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Swire Properties is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Swire Properties backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Swire Properties, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.95 | 2.95 | 0.00 |
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Swire Properties Hype Timeline
Swire Properties is at this time traded for 2.95. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Swire is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Swire Properties is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.95. About 82.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.31. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Swire Properties has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.1. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of September 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Swire Properties to cross-verify your projections.Swire Properties Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Swire Properties' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Swire Properties' future price movements. Getting to know how Swire Properties' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Swire Properties may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HLDVF | Henderson Land | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 4.51 | (1.32) | 14.08 | |
| VTWRF | Vantage Towers AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.65 | |
| CHKGF | CK Asset Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 26.97 | |
| HNGKY | Hong Kong Land | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.56 | 0.18 | 4.83 | (3.03) | 10.67 | |
| HLDCY | Henderson Land Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.74 | 0.02 | 3.42 | (3.24) | 9.12 | |
| CNGKY | CK Asset Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.63 | 0.06 | 4.29 | (3.77) | 12.34 | |
| HKHGF | Hongkong Land Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.12 | 7.47 | (2.68) | 21.04 | |
| CAOVF | China Overseas Land | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.03 | 0.00 | (2.30) | 31.80 | |
| SURDF | Sumitomo Realty Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 14.11 | 0.09 | 99.95 | (47.28) | 152.34 | |
| CAOVY | China Overseas Land | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.47 | (0.01) | 4.80 | (5.65) | 17.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Swire Properties
For every potential investor in Swire, whether a beginner or expert, Swire Properties' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Swire Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Swire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Swire Properties' price trends.Swire Properties Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Swire Properties pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Swire Properties could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Swire Properties by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Swire Properties Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Swire Properties pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Swire Properties shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Swire Properties pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Swire Properties Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Swire Properties Risk Indicators
The analysis of Swire Properties' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Swire Properties' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting swire pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8441 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Swire Properties
The number of cover stories for Swire Properties depends on current market conditions and Swire Properties' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Swire Properties is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Swire Properties' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Swire Pink Sheet
Swire Properties financial ratios help investors to determine whether Swire Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Swire with respect to the benefits of owning Swire Properties security.