Swire Pacific Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Swire Pacific is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Swire Pacific value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Swire Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Swire Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 7.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.21.

Swire Pacific Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Swire Pacific

Swire Pacific Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Swire Pacific Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Swire Pacific pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Swire Pacific pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Swire Pacific. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Swire Pacific. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Swire Pacific

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Swire Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 6.47 8.26 10.05 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 5.19 6.98 8.77 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Swire Pacific. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Swire Pacific's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Swire Pacific's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Swire Pacific.

Other Forecasting Options for Swire Pacific

For every potential investor in Swire, whether a beginner or expert, Swire Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Swire Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Swire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Swire Pacific's price trends.

Swire Pacific Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Swire Pacific Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Swire Pacific's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Swire Pacific's current price.

Swire Pacific Market Strength Events

Swire Pacific Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Swire Pink Sheet Analysis