Telus Corp Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| T Stock | CAD 19.01 0.20 1.06% |
Telus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Telus Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Telus Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Telus Corp fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Telus Corp's share price is at 54. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Telus Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.705 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.264 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9744 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.0541 | Wall Street Target Price 21.7059 |
Using Telus Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Telus Corp from the perspective of Telus Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Telus Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.86. Telus Corp after-hype prediction price | CAD 19.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Telus |
Telus Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Telus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Telus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Telus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Telus Corp Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Telus Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Telus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Telus Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Telus Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Telus Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Telus Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Telus Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.99 and 20.18, respectively. We have considered Telus Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Telus Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Telus Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0011 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1502 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.8639 |
Predictive Modules for Telus Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telus Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Telus Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Telus Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Telus Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Telus Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Telus Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Telus Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Telus Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Telus Corp's historical news coverage. Telus Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.92 and 20.12, respectively. We have considered Telus Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Telus Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Telus Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Telus Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Telus Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Telus Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Telus Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.10 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.01 | 19.02 | 0.05 |
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Telus Corp Hype Timeline
Telus Corp is at this time traded for 19.01on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Telus is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Telus Corp is about 2200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.02. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 20.14 B. Net Income was 938 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.16 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telus Corp to cross-verify your projections.Telus Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Telus Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Telus Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Telus Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Telus Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BCE | BCE Inc | 0.32 | 3 per month | 0.90 | (0.01) | 1.84 | (1.37) | 6.18 | |
| RCI-B | Rogers Communications | (0.20) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.30 | (1.75) | 5.79 | |
| RCI-A | Rogers Communications | (1.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.75 | (2.65) | 8.66 | |
| QBR-A | Quebecor | 1.33 | 9 per month | 1.39 | 0.07 | 3.01 | (2.65) | 8.99 | |
| QBR-B | Quebecor | (0.15) | 9 per month | 0.90 | 0.12 | 2.71 | (1.56) | 7.09 | |
| CCA | Cogeco Communications | 0.16 | 5 per month | 1.53 | 0.06 | 3.12 | (1.86) | 8.98 | |
| CGO | Cogeco Inc | (0.01) | 7 per month | 1.37 | 0.14 | 2.96 | (1.54) | 8.48 | |
| TGO | TeraGo Inc | (0.03) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.89 | (6.15) | 18.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Telus Corp
For every potential investor in Telus, whether a beginner or expert, Telus Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Telus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Telus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Telus Corp's price trends.Telus Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Telus Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Telus Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Telus Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Telus Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Telus Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Telus Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Telus Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Telus Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Telus Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Telus Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Telus Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting telus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7352 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Variance | 1.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Telus Corp
The number of cover stories for Telus Corp depends on current market conditions and Telus Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Telus Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Telus Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Telus Corp Short Properties
Telus Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Telus Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Telus Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Telus Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Telus Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 869 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telus Corp to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Telus Stock, please use our How to Invest in Telus Corp guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.