Transamerica Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

TAGHX Fund   30.52  0.82  2.62%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Transamerica Growth R6 on the next trading day is expected to be 30.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.60. Transamerica Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Transamerica simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Transamerica Growth R6 are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Transamerica Growth prices get older.

Transamerica Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Transamerica Growth R6 on the next trading day is expected to be 30.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Transamerica Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Transamerica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Transamerica Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Transamerica Growth Transamerica Growth forecast
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Transamerica Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Transamerica's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Transamerica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.55 and 32.52, respectively. We have considered Transamerica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.52
30.54
Expected Value
32.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Transamerica mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Transamerica mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4924
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0756
MADMean absolute deviation0.36
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0112
SAESum of the absolute errors21.5975
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Transamerica Growth R6 forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Transamerica observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Transamerica

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Transamerica Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.5330.5232.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
29.2231.2133.20
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Transamerica. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Transamerica's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Transamerica's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Transamerica Growth.

Other Forecasting Options for Transamerica

For every potential investor in Transamerica, whether a beginner or expert, Transamerica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Transamerica Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Transamerica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Transamerica's price trends.

Transamerica Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Transamerica mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Transamerica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Transamerica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Transamerica Growth Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Transamerica's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Transamerica's current price.

Transamerica Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Transamerica mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Transamerica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Transamerica mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Transamerica Growth R6 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Transamerica Risk Indicators

The analysis of Transamerica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Transamerica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting transamerica mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Transamerica Mutual Fund

Transamerica financial ratios help investors to determine whether Transamerica Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Transamerica with respect to the benefits of owning Transamerica security.
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