Telecom Argentina Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| TECO2 Stock | ARS 3,788 375.00 10.99% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Telecom Argentina on the next trading day is expected to be 3,788 with a mean absolute deviation of 83.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,996. Telecom Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Telecom Argentina stock prices and determine the direction of Telecom Argentina's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Telecom Argentina's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the value of rsi of Telecom Argentina's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Telecom Argentina hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Telecom Argentina from the perspective of Telecom Argentina response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Telecom Argentina on the next trading day is expected to be 3,788 with a mean absolute deviation of 83.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,996. Telecom Argentina after-hype prediction price | ARS 3787.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Telecom |
Telecom Argentina Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Telecom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Telecom using various technical indicators. When you analyze Telecom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Telecom Argentina Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Telecom Argentina on the next trading day is expected to be 3,788 with a mean absolute deviation of 83.27, mean absolute percentage error of 14,784, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,996.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Telecom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Telecom Argentina's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Telecom Argentina Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Telecom Argentina | Telecom Argentina Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Telecom Argentina Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Telecom Argentina's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Telecom Argentina's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,784 and 3,791, respectively. We have considered Telecom Argentina's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Telecom Argentina stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Telecom Argentina stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 125.8739 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -14.875 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 83.2732 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0231 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4996.39 |
Predictive Modules for Telecom Argentina
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telecom Argentina. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Telecom Argentina After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Telecom Argentina at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Telecom Argentina or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Telecom Argentina, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Telecom Argentina Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Telecom Argentina's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Telecom Argentina's historical news coverage. Telecom Argentina's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3,784 and 3,791, respectively. We have considered Telecom Argentina's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Telecom Argentina is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Telecom Argentina is based on 3 months time horizon.
Telecom Argentina Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Telecom Argentina is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Telecom Argentina backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Telecom Argentina, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 3.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3,788 | 3,788 | 0.00 |
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Telecom Argentina Hype Timeline
Telecom Argentina is at this time traded for 3,788on Buenos Aires Exchange of Argentina. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Telecom is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Telecom Argentina is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3,788. About 40.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.98. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Telecom Argentina has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.53. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 20.69. The firm last dividend was issued on the 16th of October 2019. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telecom Argentina to cross-verify your projections.Telecom Argentina Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Telecom Argentina's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Telecom Argentina's future price movements. Getting to know how Telecom Argentina's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Telecom Argentina may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VZ | Verizon Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.10 | (2.74) | 8.02 | |
| TV | Grupo Televisa SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.91 | 0.12 | 4.58 | (2.86) | 16.30 | |
| EDSH | Edesa Holding SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 240.14 | |
| LONG | Longvie SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.45 | 0.09 | 7.43 | (4.23) | 17.46 | |
| AXP | American Express Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.48 | (2.72) | 8.85 | |
| CAPX | Capex SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | 0.15 | 9.93 | (4.19) | 24.68 | |
| CEPU | Central Puerto SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.74 | 0.18 | 6.19 | (4.44) | 33.69 | |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.22 | (3.66) | 8.43 | |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.86 | (0.06) | 1.91 | (2.77) | 9.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Telecom Argentina
For every potential investor in Telecom, whether a beginner or expert, Telecom Argentina's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Telecom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Telecom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Telecom Argentina's price trends.Telecom Argentina Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Telecom Argentina stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Telecom Argentina could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Telecom Argentina by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Telecom Argentina Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Telecom Argentina stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Telecom Argentina shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Telecom Argentina stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Telecom Argentina entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 63300.23 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7772 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.11 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3596.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3660.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.001 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 378.75 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 375.0 |
Telecom Argentina Risk Indicators
The analysis of Telecom Argentina's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Telecom Argentina's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting telecom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.61 | |||
| Variance | 21.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Telecom Argentina
The number of cover stories for Telecom Argentina depends on current market conditions and Telecom Argentina's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Telecom Argentina is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Telecom Argentina's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Telecom Stock
Telecom Argentina financial ratios help investors to determine whether Telecom Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Telecom with respect to the benefits of owning Telecom Argentina security.