Tearlach Resources Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

TELHF Stock   0.02  0.0002  1.12%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tearlach Resources Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.1. Tearlach Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tearlach Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Tearlach Resources is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Tearlach Resources Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Tearlach Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tearlach Resources Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000368, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.1.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tearlach Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tearlach Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tearlach Resources Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Tearlach Resources Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tearlach Resources' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tearlach Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0002 and 17.81, respectively. We have considered Tearlach Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.02
0.0002
Downside
0.02
Expected Value
17.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tearlach Resources pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tearlach Resources pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.5976
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0016
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.097
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0981
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Tearlach Resources Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Tearlach Resources. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Tearlach Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tearlach Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.0217.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.0217.81
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tearlach Resources. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tearlach Resources' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tearlach Resources' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Tearlach Resources.

Other Forecasting Options for Tearlach Resources

For every potential investor in Tearlach, whether a beginner or expert, Tearlach Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tearlach Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tearlach. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tearlach Resources' price trends.

Tearlach Resources Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tearlach Resources pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tearlach Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tearlach Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Tearlach Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tearlach Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tearlach Resources' current price.

Tearlach Resources Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tearlach Resources pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tearlach Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tearlach Resources pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Tearlach Resources Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tearlach Resources Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tearlach Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tearlach Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tearlach pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Tearlach Pink Sheet

Tearlach Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tearlach Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tearlach with respect to the benefits of owning Tearlach Resources security.