Teradyne Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

TER Stock  USD 250.99  0.51  0.20%   
Teradyne Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Teradyne's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Teradyne's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Teradyne fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Teradyne's stock price is slightly above 68. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Teradyne, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 68

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Teradyne's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Teradyne and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Teradyne's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Teradyne, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Teradyne's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.16)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.0241
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.5191
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.2187
Wall Street Target Price
219.375
Using Teradyne hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Teradyne from the perspective of Teradyne response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Teradyne using Teradyne's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Teradyne using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Teradyne's stock price.

Teradyne Short Interest

An investor who is long Teradyne may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Teradyne and may potentially protect profits, hedge Teradyne with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
131.1629
Short Percent
0.0359
Short Ratio
1.76
Shares Short Prior Month
4.8 M
50 Day MA
199.842

Teradyne Relative Strength Index

The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Teradyne on the next trading day is expected to be 252.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 263.09.

Teradyne Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Teradyne's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Teradyne. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Teradyne can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Teradyne. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Teradyne's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Teradyne.

Teradyne Implied Volatility

    
  0.79  
Teradyne's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Teradyne stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Teradyne's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Teradyne stock will not fluctuate a lot when Teradyne's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Teradyne on the next trading day is expected to be 252.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 263.09.

Teradyne after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 253.05  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Teradyne to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Teradyne Stock, please use our How to Invest in Teradyne guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Teradyne contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Teradyne will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0494% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Teradyne trading at USD 250.99, that is roughly USD 0.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Teradyne's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Teradyne options at the current volatility level of 0.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Teradyne Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Teradyne's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Teradyne's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Teradyne stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Teradyne's open interest, investors have to compare it to Teradyne's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Teradyne is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Teradyne. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Teradyne Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Teradyne price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Teradyne using various technical indicators. When you analyze Teradyne charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Teradyne works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Teradyne Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Teradyne on the next trading day is expected to be 252.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.46, mean absolute percentage error of 33.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 263.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Teradyne Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Teradyne's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Teradyne Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Teradyne  Teradyne Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Teradyne Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Teradyne's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Teradyne's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 249.30 and 255.30, respectively. We have considered Teradyne's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
250.99
249.30
Downside
252.30
Expected Value
255.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Teradyne stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Teradyne stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1564
MADMean absolute deviation4.4592
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0229
SAESum of the absolute errors263.09
When Teradyne prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Teradyne trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Teradyne observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Teradyne

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Teradyne. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Teradyne's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
250.05253.05256.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
241.03244.03276.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
190.46221.79253.13
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
199.63219.38243.51
Details

Teradyne After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Teradyne at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Teradyne or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Teradyne, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Teradyne Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Teradyne's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Teradyne's historical news coverage. Teradyne's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 250.05 and 256.05, respectively. We have considered Teradyne's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
250.99
250.05
Downside
253.05
After-hype Price
256.05
Upside
Teradyne is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Teradyne is based on 3 months time horizon.

Teradyne Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Teradyne is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Teradyne backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Teradyne, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.58 
3.00
  2.06 
  0.73 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
250.99
253.05
0.82 
84.27  
Notes

Teradyne Hype Timeline

On the 29th of January Teradyne is traded for 250.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.73. Teradyne is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 253.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 84.27%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.82%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.58%. The volatility of related hype on Teradyne is about 237.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 251.72. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.82 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 542.37 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.68 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Teradyne to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Teradyne Stock, please use our How to Invest in Teradyne guide.

Teradyne Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Teradyne's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Teradyne's future price movements. Getting to know how Teradyne's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Teradyne may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
KEYSKeysight Technologies 2.77 10 per month 1.32  0.18  2.87 (2.83) 13.11 
ALABAstera Labs 5.56 9 per month 5.45  0.04  7.93 (8.44) 24.41 
ASXASE Industrial Holding 0.03 7 per month 1.67  0.28  4.23 (2.91) 13.07 
STMSTMicroelectronics NV ADR 0.82 6 per month 1.58  0.10  5.16 (2.91) 10.54 
MCHPMicrochip Technology(0.77)10 per month 1.85  0.1  6.14 (3.32) 15.07 
ONON Semiconductor 1.27 9 per month 1.85  0.11  4.71 (2.65) 16.50 
SMCISuper Micro Computer 0.58 8 per month 0.00 (0.18) 5.77 (6.43) 18.12 
WITWipro Limited ADR(0.03)6 per month 0.00 (0.05) 2.76 (2.13) 14.08 
SNDKSandisk Corp 2.39 7 per month 5.50  0.25  15.31 (7.88) 36.75 
UMCUnited Microelectronics(0.01)9 per month 2.10  0.17  7.50 (3.30) 19.22 

Other Forecasting Options for Teradyne

For every potential investor in Teradyne, whether a beginner or expert, Teradyne's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Teradyne Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Teradyne. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Teradyne's price trends.

Teradyne Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Teradyne stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Teradyne could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Teradyne by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Teradyne Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Teradyne stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Teradyne shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Teradyne stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Teradyne entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Teradyne Risk Indicators

The analysis of Teradyne's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Teradyne's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting teradyne stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Teradyne

The number of cover stories for Teradyne depends on current market conditions and Teradyne's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Teradyne is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Teradyne's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Teradyne Short Properties

Teradyne's future price predictability will typically decrease when Teradyne's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Teradyne often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Teradyne's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Teradyne's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding163.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments599.7 M

Additional Tools for Teradyne Stock Analysis

When running Teradyne's price analysis, check to measure Teradyne's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Teradyne is operating at the current time. Most of Teradyne's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Teradyne's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Teradyne's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Teradyne to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.