Tetragon Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

TFG Stock  USD 14.90  0.10  0.67%   
Tetragon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Tetragon Financial's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 17

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Tetragon Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Tetragon Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Tetragon Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Tetragon Financial Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Tetragon Financial's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
10.139
Wall Street Target Price
14.5
Quarterly Revenue Growth
6.448
Using Tetragon Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tetragon Financial Group from the perspective of Tetragon Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Tetragon Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 14.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.17.

Tetragon Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 14.83  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tetragon Financial to cross-verify your projections.

Tetragon Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Tetragon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tetragon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tetragon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Tetragon Financial price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Tetragon Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Tetragon Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 14.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.17.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tetragon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tetragon Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tetragon Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Tetragon Financial  Tetragon Financial Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Tetragon Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tetragon Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tetragon Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.75 and 16.11, respectively. We have considered Tetragon Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.90
14.93
Expected Value
16.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tetragon Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tetragon Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1111
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1963
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0116
SAESum of the absolute errors12.1698
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Tetragon Financial Group historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Tetragon Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tetragon Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.6514.8316.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.7515.9317.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.5815.2419.90
Details

Tetragon Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Tetragon Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tetragon Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tetragon Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Tetragon Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Tetragon Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tetragon Financial's historical news coverage. Tetragon Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.65 and 16.01, respectively. We have considered Tetragon Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
14.90
14.83
After-hype Price
16.01
Upside
Tetragon Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tetragon Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Tetragon Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tetragon Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tetragon Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tetragon Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.36 
1.18
  0.07 
  0.08 
1 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
14.90
14.83
0.47 
590.00  
Notes

Tetragon Financial Hype Timeline

Tetragon Financial is at this time traded for 14.90on Euronext Amsterdam of Netherlands. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Tetragon is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.83. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.47%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Tetragon Financial is about 561.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.98. About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.36. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Tetragon Financial recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.94. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of November 2025. The firm had 53.36364:52.36364 split on the 29th of February 2016. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tetragon Financial to cross-verify your projections.

Tetragon Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Tetragon Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tetragon Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Tetragon Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tetragon Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Tetragon Financial

For every potential investor in Tetragon, whether a beginner or expert, Tetragon Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tetragon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tetragon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tetragon Financial's price trends.

Tetragon Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tetragon Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tetragon Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tetragon Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Tetragon Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tetragon Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tetragon Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tetragon Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tetragon Financial Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tetragon Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tetragon Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tetragon Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tetragon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Tetragon Financial

The number of cover stories for Tetragon Financial depends on current market conditions and Tetragon Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tetragon Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tetragon Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Tetragon Financial Short Properties

Tetragon Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tetragon Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tetragon Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tetragon Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tetragon Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding89.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments30.5 M

Additional Tools for Tetragon Stock Analysis

When running Tetragon Financial's price analysis, check to measure Tetragon Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tetragon Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Tetragon Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tetragon Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tetragon Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tetragon Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.