Thermon Group Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

THR Stock  USD 38.26  0.30  0.79%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thermon Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 38.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.66. Thermon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Thermon Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Thermon Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Thermon Group fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Thermon Group's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Thermon Group's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Thermon Group and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Thermon Group's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Thermon Group Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Thermon Group's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.607
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.5675
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.0775
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.2033
Wall Street Target Price
37
Using Thermon Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Thermon Group Holdings from the perspective of Thermon Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Thermon Group using Thermon Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Thermon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Thermon Group's stock price.

Thermon Group Short Interest

An investor who is long Thermon Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Thermon Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge Thermon Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
29.1808
Short Percent
0.023
Short Ratio
1.63
Shares Short Prior Month
651.9 K
50 Day MA
35.6098

Thermon Group Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Thermon Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Thermon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Thermon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Thermon Group Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Thermon Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Thermon Group.

Thermon Group Implied Volatility

    
  1.32  
Thermon Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Thermon Group Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Thermon Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Thermon Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Thermon Group's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thermon Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 38.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.66.

Thermon Group after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 38.26  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Thermon Group to cross-verify your projections.
At this time, Thermon Group's Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 01/10/2026, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 4.55, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 9.77. . As of 01/10/2026, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 64.6 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 35.3 M.

Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Thermon Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Thermon Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Thermon Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Thermon Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Thermon Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to Thermon Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Thermon Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Thermon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Thermon Group Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Thermon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Thermon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Thermon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Thermon Group simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Thermon Group Holdings are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Thermon Group Holdings prices get older.

Thermon Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of January 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thermon Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 38.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thermon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thermon Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Thermon Group Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Thermon GroupThermon Group Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Thermon Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Thermon Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thermon Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.82 and 40.70, respectively. We have considered Thermon Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.26
38.26
Expected Value
40.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thermon Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thermon Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8845
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1963
MADMean absolute deviation0.611
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0179
SAESum of the absolute errors36.66
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Thermon Group Holdings forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Thermon Group observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Thermon Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thermon Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.8038.2640.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.4342.4044.86
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
33.2537.2841.31
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
33.6737.0041.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Thermon Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Thermon Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Thermon Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Thermon Group Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Thermon Group

For every potential investor in Thermon, whether a beginner or expert, Thermon Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thermon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thermon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thermon Group's price trends.

Thermon Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thermon Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thermon Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thermon Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Thermon Group Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Thermon Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Thermon Group's current price.

Thermon Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thermon Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thermon Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thermon Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Thermon Group Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Thermon Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Thermon Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thermon Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thermon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Thermon Group

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Thermon Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Thermon Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Thermon Stock

  0.63ST Sensata TechnologiesPairCorr
  0.78300548 Broadex TechnologiesPairCorr
  0.81AME Ametek IncPairCorr

Moving against Thermon Stock

  0.93002670 Guosheng FinancialPairCorr
  0.87FLUX Flux Power HoldingsPairCorr
  0.86WATT Energous Tech BoostPairCorr
  0.83IPWR Ideal PowerPairCorr
  0.8PLUG Plug PowerPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Thermon Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Thermon Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Thermon Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Thermon Group Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Thermon Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Thermon Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Thermon Group Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Thermon Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Thermon Stock Analysis

When running Thermon Group's price analysis, check to measure Thermon Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Thermon Group is operating at the current time. Most of Thermon Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Thermon Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Thermon Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Thermon Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.