Thomasville Bancshares Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

THVB Stock  USD 98.00  2.00  2.08%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Thomasville Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 99.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.75. Thomasville Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Thomasville Bancshares stock prices and determine the direction of Thomasville Bancshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Thomasville Bancshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Thomasville Bancshares' pink sheet price is about 60. This usually implies that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Thomasville, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 60

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Thomasville Bancshares' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Thomasville Bancshares, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Thomasville Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Thomasville Bancshares from the perspective of Thomasville Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Thomasville Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 99.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.75.

Thomasville Bancshares after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 98.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Thomasville Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.

Thomasville Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Thomasville price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Thomasville using various technical indicators. When you analyze Thomasville charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Thomasville Bancshares is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Thomasville Bancshares value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Thomasville Bancshares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Thomasville Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 99.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96, mean absolute percentage error of 1.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thomasville Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thomasville Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Thomasville Bancshares Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Thomasville BancsharesThomasville Bancshares Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Thomasville Bancshares Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Thomasville Bancshares' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thomasville Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97.75 and 100.70, respectively. We have considered Thomasville Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
98.00
99.22
Expected Value
100.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thomasville Bancshares pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thomasville Bancshares pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.7707
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.963
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0104
SAESum of the absolute errors58.7455
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Thomasville Bancshares. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Thomasville Bancshares. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Thomasville Bancshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thomasville Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thomasville Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
96.5398.0099.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.8680.33107.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
91.6095.82100.03
Details

Thomasville Bancshares After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Thomasville Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Thomasville Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Thomasville Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Thomasville Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Thomasville Bancshares' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Thomasville Bancshares' historical news coverage. Thomasville Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 96.53 and 99.47, respectively. We have considered Thomasville Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
98.00
98.00
After-hype Price
99.47
Upside
Thomasville Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Thomasville Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.

Thomasville Bancshares Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Thomasville Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Thomasville Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Thomasville Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.15 
1.47
 0.00  
  0.01 
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
98.00
98.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Thomasville Bancshares Hype Timeline

Thomasville Bancshares is at this time traded for 98.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Thomasville is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Thomasville Bancshares is about 1934.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 98.01. The book value of the company was at this time reported as 9.9. The company last dividend was issued on the 2nd of December 2022. Thomasville Bancshares had 2:1 split on the 16th of July 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Thomasville Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.

Thomasville Bancshares Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Thomasville Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Thomasville Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Thomasville Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Thomasville Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
RCBCRiver City Bank 0.00 0 per month 24.76  0.25  900.00 (89.87) 990.92 
BPHLYBank of the 0.00 0 per month 2.74  0.06  4.98 (5.60) 14.22 
ADBKFAddiko Bank AG 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
AMBZAmerican Business Bk 0.76 3 per month 0.00  0.19  1.41 (0.64) 4.75 
FFMRFirst Farmers Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 0.76 (1.63) 5.57 
TRKYYTrkiye Sinai Kalkinma 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
DBINDacotah Banks 0.00 0 per month 1.20  0.01  2.61 (1.30) 10.21 
SWZNFSchweizerische Nationalbank 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 0.00 (1.79) 13.50 
WCCBWest Coast Community 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.05  1.17 (0.63) 2.38 
HBIAHills Bancorporation 0.00 0 per month 0.71 (0.06) 1.96 (0.92) 6.08 

Other Forecasting Options for Thomasville Bancshares

For every potential investor in Thomasville, whether a beginner or expert, Thomasville Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thomasville Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thomasville. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thomasville Bancshares' price trends.

Thomasville Bancshares Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thomasville Bancshares pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thomasville Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thomasville Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Thomasville Bancshares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thomasville Bancshares pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thomasville Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thomasville Bancshares pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Thomasville Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Thomasville Bancshares Risk Indicators

The analysis of Thomasville Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thomasville Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thomasville pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Thomasville Bancshares

The number of cover stories for Thomasville Bancshares depends on current market conditions and Thomasville Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Thomasville Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Thomasville Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Thomasville Bancshares Short Properties

Thomasville Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when Thomasville Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Thomasville Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Thomasville Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thomasville Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding6.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments138.8 M

Other Information on Investing in Thomasville Pink Sheet

Thomasville Bancshares financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thomasville Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thomasville with respect to the benefits of owning Thomasville Bancshares security.