Toromont Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TIH Stock | CAD 116.61 0.13 0.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Toromont Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 118.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.07. Toromont Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Toromont Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Toromont Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Toromont Industries fundamentals over time.
Toromont |
Toromont Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Toromont Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 118.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 1.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toromont Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toromont Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Toromont Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Toromont Industries | Toromont Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Toromont Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Toromont Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Toromont Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.63 and 119.83, respectively. We have considered Toromont Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toromont Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toromont Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7422 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.034 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0082 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.0716 |
Predictive Modules for Toromont Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toromont Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Toromont Industries
For every potential investor in Toromont, whether a beginner or expert, Toromont Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Toromont Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Toromont. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Toromont Industries' price trends.Toromont Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Toromont Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Toromont Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toromont Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Toromont Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Toromont Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Toromont Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Toromont Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Toromont Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Toromont Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Toromont Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Toromont Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Toromont Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Toromont Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toromont Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting toromont stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8092 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Toromont Industries
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Toromont Industries position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Toromont Industries will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Toromont Stock
| 0.67 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase | PairCorr |
| 0.58 | RY-PS | Royal Bank | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | BOFA | Bank of America | PairCorr |
| 0.52 | RY-PO | Royal Bank | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | RY-PM | Royal Bank | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Toromont Industries could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Toromont Industries when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Toromont Industries - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Toromont Industries to buy it.
The correlation of Toromont Industries is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Toromont Industries moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Toromont Industries moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Toromont Industries can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Toromont Stock
Toromont Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Toromont Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Toromont with respect to the benefits of owning Toromont Industries security.