THE INITIATES Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TIP Stock | 19.50 0.60 3.17% |
Momentum 86
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using THE INITIATES hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of THE INITIATES PLC from the perspective of THE INITIATES response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of THE INITIATES PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 19.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.05. THE INITIATES after-hype prediction price | NGN 19.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
THE |
THE INITIATES Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine THE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for THE using various technical indicators. When you analyze THE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
THE INITIATES Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of THE INITIATES PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 19.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict THE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THE INITIATES's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
THE INITIATES Stock Forecast Pattern
THE INITIATES Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting THE INITIATES's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. THE INITIATES's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.22 and 23.78, respectively. We have considered THE INITIATES's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THE INITIATES stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THE INITIATES stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.6414 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1408 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4675 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0288 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.05 |
Predictive Modules for THE INITIATES
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as THE INITIATES PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of THE INITIATES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
THE INITIATES Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of THE INITIATES at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in THE INITIATES or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of THE INITIATES, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
THE INITIATES Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as THE INITIATES is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading THE INITIATES backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with THE INITIATES, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.93 | 4.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.50 | 19.50 | 0.00 |
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THE INITIATES Hype Timeline
THE INITIATES PLC is at this time traded for 19.50on Nigerian Stock Exchange of Nigeria. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. THE is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.93%. %. The volatility of related hype on THE INITIATES is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.50. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in discontinued.THE INITIATES Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to THE INITIATES's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict THE INITIATES's future price movements. Getting to know how THE INITIATES's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how THE INITIATES may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FIDSON | FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.92 | 0.35 | 8.18 | (3.38) | 16.41 | |
| UNIVINSURE | UNIVERSAL INSURANCE PANY | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.32 | 0.06 | 5.88 | (5.41) | 19.43 | |
| FIDELITYBK | FIDELITY BANK PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.40 | 0.02 | 4.50 | (2.43) | 10.24 | |
| CUSTODIAN | CUSTODIAN INVESTMENT PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.65 | 0.24 | 9.09 | (2.38) | 17.84 | |
| ZENITHBANK | ZENITH BANK PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.56 | 0.21 | 4.36 | (1.67) | 19.95 | |
| CILEASING | C I LEASING | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.15 | 0.14 | 9.49 | (7.05) | 19.45 | |
| INTBREW | INTERNATIONAL BREWERIES PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.84 | 0.09 | 8.24 | (6.00) | 16.54 | |
| GOLDBREW | GOLDEN GUINEA BREWERIES | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for THE INITIATES
For every potential investor in THE, whether a beginner or expert, THE INITIATES's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. THE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in THE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying THE INITIATES's price trends.THE INITIATES Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with THE INITIATES stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of THE INITIATES could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing THE INITIATES by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
THE INITIATES Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how THE INITIATES stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading THE INITIATES shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying THE INITIATES stock market strength indicators, traders can identify THE INITIATES PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
THE INITIATES Risk Indicators
The analysis of THE INITIATES's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in THE INITIATES's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting the stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.22 | |||
| Variance | 17.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.06 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.42 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for THE INITIATES
The number of cover stories for THE INITIATES depends on current market conditions and THE INITIATES's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that THE INITIATES is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about THE INITIATES's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for THE Stock Analysis
When running THE INITIATES's price analysis, check to measure THE INITIATES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy THE INITIATES is operating at the current time. Most of THE INITIATES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of THE INITIATES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move THE INITIATES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of THE INITIATES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.