Thirumalai Chemicals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

TIRUMALCHM   317.60  2.25  0.71%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Thirumalai Chemicals Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 305.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 316.50. Thirumalai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Thirumalai Chemicals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Thirumalai Chemicals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Thirumalai Chemicals fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Thirumalai Chemicals' Property Plant And Equipment Net is quite stable compared to the past year. Net Debt is expected to rise to about 6.8 B this year, although the value of Net Receivables will most likely fall to about 1.4 B.
A naive forecasting model for Thirumalai Chemicals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Thirumalai Chemicals Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Thirumalai Chemicals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Thirumalai Chemicals Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 305.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.19, mean absolute percentage error of 45.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 316.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thirumalai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thirumalai Chemicals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Thirumalai Chemicals Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Thirumalai ChemicalsThirumalai Chemicals Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Thirumalai Chemicals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Thirumalai Chemicals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thirumalai Chemicals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 303.73 and 308.25, respectively. We have considered Thirumalai Chemicals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
317.60
303.73
Downside
305.99
Expected Value
308.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thirumalai Chemicals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thirumalai Chemicals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.9373
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5.1886
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0162
SAESum of the absolute errors316.5024
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Thirumalai Chemicals Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Thirumalai Chemicals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Thirumalai Chemicals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thirumalai Chemicals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
312.87315.12317.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
274.66276.91346.89
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
287.82311.39334.96
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Thirumalai Chemicals

For every potential investor in Thirumalai, whether a beginner or expert, Thirumalai Chemicals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thirumalai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thirumalai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thirumalai Chemicals' price trends.

Thirumalai Chemicals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thirumalai Chemicals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thirumalai Chemicals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thirumalai Chemicals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Thirumalai Chemicals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Thirumalai Chemicals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Thirumalai Chemicals' current price.

Thirumalai Chemicals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thirumalai Chemicals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thirumalai Chemicals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thirumalai Chemicals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Thirumalai Chemicals Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Thirumalai Chemicals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Thirumalai Chemicals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thirumalai Chemicals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thirumalai stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Thirumalai Stock

Thirumalai Chemicals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thirumalai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thirumalai with respect to the benefits of owning Thirumalai Chemicals security.