Thyssenkrupp Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| TKA Stock | EUR 11.05 0.20 1.78% |
Thyssenkrupp Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Thyssenkrupp stock prices and determine the direction of thyssenkrupp AG's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Thyssenkrupp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Thyssenkrupp's stock price is about 62. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Thyssenkrupp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Thyssenkrupp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of thyssenkrupp AG from the perspective of Thyssenkrupp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of thyssenkrupp AG on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.76. Thyssenkrupp after-hype prediction price | EUR 11.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Thyssenkrupp |
Thyssenkrupp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Thyssenkrupp price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Thyssenkrupp using various technical indicators. When you analyze Thyssenkrupp charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Thyssenkrupp Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of thyssenkrupp AG on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thyssenkrupp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thyssenkrupp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Thyssenkrupp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Thyssenkrupp | Thyssenkrupp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Thyssenkrupp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Thyssenkrupp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thyssenkrupp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.42 and 14.46, respectively. We have considered Thyssenkrupp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thyssenkrupp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thyssenkrupp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3445 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2219 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0233 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.7601 |
Predictive Modules for Thyssenkrupp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as thyssenkrupp AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Thyssenkrupp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Thyssenkrupp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Thyssenkrupp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Thyssenkrupp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Thyssenkrupp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Thyssenkrupp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Thyssenkrupp's historical news coverage. Thyssenkrupp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.06 and 14.04, respectively. We have considered Thyssenkrupp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Thyssenkrupp is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of thyssenkrupp AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
Thyssenkrupp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Thyssenkrupp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Thyssenkrupp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Thyssenkrupp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 3.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.05 | 11.05 | 0.00 |
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Thyssenkrupp Hype Timeline
thyssenkrupp AG is at this time traded for 11.05on Hanover Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Thyssenkrupp is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on Thyssenkrupp is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.05. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.27. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. thyssenkrupp AG last dividend was issued on the 3rd of February 1970. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Thyssenkrupp to cross-verify your projections.Thyssenkrupp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Thyssenkrupp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Thyssenkrupp's future price movements. Getting to know how Thyssenkrupp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Thyssenkrupp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XS4 | ON SEMICONDUCTOR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.57 | 0.04 | 5.99 | (4.30) | 15.72 | |
| FJZ | Zijin Mining Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.42 | 0.12 | 5.63 | (3.78) | 12.91 | |
| HP3A | Ringmetall SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.50 | 0.01 | 4.58 | (4.23) | 18.46 | |
| LTT | Lattice Semiconductor | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.79 | 0.05 | 6.26 | (4.53) | 16.74 | |
| 4A0 | Anglesey Mining plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.67 | |
| GG7 | GRIFFIN MINING LTD | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | 0.20 | 5.51 | (2.86) | 12.04 | |
| SMG | Magnachip Semiconductor | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.63 | (6.36) | 18.85 | |
| SMG | MagnaChip Semiconductor Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.78 | (0.02) | 4.63 | (6.25) | 14.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Thyssenkrupp
For every potential investor in Thyssenkrupp, whether a beginner or expert, Thyssenkrupp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thyssenkrupp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thyssenkrupp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thyssenkrupp's price trends.Thyssenkrupp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thyssenkrupp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thyssenkrupp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thyssenkrupp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Thyssenkrupp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thyssenkrupp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thyssenkrupp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thyssenkrupp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify thyssenkrupp AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 62.4 |
Thyssenkrupp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Thyssenkrupp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thyssenkrupp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thyssenkrupp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Variance | 8.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Thyssenkrupp
The number of cover stories for Thyssenkrupp depends on current market conditions and Thyssenkrupp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Thyssenkrupp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Thyssenkrupp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Thyssenkrupp Short Properties
Thyssenkrupp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Thyssenkrupp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of thyssenkrupp AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Thyssenkrupp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thyssenkrupp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 622.5 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 1.1 B |
Other Information on Investing in Thyssenkrupp Stock
Thyssenkrupp financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thyssenkrupp Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thyssenkrupp with respect to the benefits of owning Thyssenkrupp security.