Alpha Teknova Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TKNO Stock | USD 3.16 0.02 0.63% |
Alpha Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Alpha Teknova's share price is approaching 31. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alpha Teknova, making its price go up or down. Momentum 31
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alpha Teknova hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alpha Teknova from the perspective of Alpha Teknova response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alpha Teknova on the next trading day is expected to be 2.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.39. Alpha Teknova after-hype prediction price | USD 3.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha Teknova to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Alpha Stock, please use our How to Invest in Alpha Teknova guide.Alpha Teknova Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alpha price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alpha using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alpha charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alpha Teknova Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alpha Teknova on the next trading day is expected to be 2.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alpha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alpha Teknova's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alpha Teknova Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alpha Teknova | Alpha Teknova Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alpha Teknova Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alpha Teknova's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alpha Teknova's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 6.62, respectively. We have considered Alpha Teknova's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alpha Teknova stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alpha Teknova stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7393 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1539 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0364 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.3865 |
Predictive Modules for Alpha Teknova
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alpha Teknova. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alpha Teknova After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alpha Teknova at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alpha Teknova or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alpha Teknova, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alpha Teknova Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alpha Teknova's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alpha Teknova's historical news coverage. Alpha Teknova's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.16 and 6.86, respectively. We have considered Alpha Teknova's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alpha Teknova is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alpha Teknova is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alpha Teknova Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alpha Teknova is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alpha Teknova backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alpha Teknova, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.16 | 3.16 | 0.00 |
|
Alpha Teknova Hype Timeline
Alpha Teknova is at this time traded for 3.16. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Alpha is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.7%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alpha Teknova is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.16. About 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Alpha Teknova was at this time reported as 1.36. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.33. Alpha Teknova had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha Teknova to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Alpha Stock, please use our How to Invest in Alpha Teknova guide.Alpha Teknova Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alpha Teknova's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alpha Teknova's future price movements. Getting to know how Alpha Teknova's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alpha Teknova may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LFCR | Lifecore Biomedical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.15 | 0.09 | 6.17 | (4.01) | 15.24 | |
| BIOA | BioAge Labs | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.71 | 0.25 | 13.88 | (6.06) | 33.50 | |
| CGC | Canopy Growth Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.98 | 0.01 | 8.55 | (9.16) | 66.41 | |
| ACB | Aurora Cannabis | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.56 | (5.19) | 26.49 | |
| XGN | Exagen Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.52) | 2.88 | (6.15) | 17.46 | |
| IRWD | Ironwood Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.01 | 0.26 | 23.32 | (6.70) | 41.10 | |
| IMMP | Immutep Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.96 | 0.16 | 7.41 | (5.41) | 31.54 | |
| PRQR | ProQR Therapeutics BV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.83 | (8.02) | 25.48 | |
| CVRX | CVRx Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 8.05 | (6.66) | 28.35 | |
| NEO | NeoGenomics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | 0.14 | 4.99 | (3.08) | 13.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alpha Teknova
For every potential investor in Alpha, whether a beginner or expert, Alpha Teknova's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alpha Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alpha. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alpha Teknova's price trends.Alpha Teknova Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alpha Teknova stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alpha Teknova could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alpha Teknova by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alpha Teknova Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alpha Teknova stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alpha Teknova shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alpha Teknova stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alpha Teknova entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alpha Teknova Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alpha Teknova's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alpha Teknova's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alpha stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.7 | |||
| Variance | 13.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alpha Teknova
The number of cover stories for Alpha Teknova depends on current market conditions and Alpha Teknova's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alpha Teknova is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alpha Teknova's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Alpha Teknova Short Properties
Alpha Teknova's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alpha Teknova's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alpha Teknova often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alpha Teknova's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alpha Teknova's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 30.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha Teknova to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Alpha Stock, please use our How to Invest in Alpha Teknova guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Alpha diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alpha Teknova. If investors know Alpha will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Alpha Teknova data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Alpha Teknova requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Alpha's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Alpha Teknova's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Alpha Teknova's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alpha Teknova's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alpha Teknova is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Alpha Teknova's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.