Telstra Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Regression
| TLGPY Stock | USD 16.16 0.09 0.56% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Telstra Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 16.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.53. Telstra Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Telstra's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Telstra hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Telstra Limited from the perspective of Telstra response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Telstra Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 16.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.53. Telstra after-hype prediction price | USD 16.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Telstra |
Telstra Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Telstra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Telstra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Telstra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Telstra Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Telstra Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 16.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Telstra Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Telstra's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Telstra Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Telstra Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Telstra's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Telstra's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.23 and 17.27, respectively. We have considered Telstra's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Telstra pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Telstra pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7173 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1537 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0095 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.5319 |
Predictive Modules for Telstra
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telstra Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Telstra After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Telstra at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Telstra or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Telstra, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Telstra Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Telstra's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Telstra's historical news coverage. Telstra's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.14 and 17.18, respectively. We have considered Telstra's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Telstra is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Telstra Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Telstra Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Telstra is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Telstra backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Telstra, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 12 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.16 | 16.16 | 0.00 |
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Telstra Hype Timeline
Telstra Limited is at this time traded for 16.16. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Telstra is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Telstra is about 518.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.16. The book value of the company was at this time reported as 6.65. The company last dividend was issued on the 24th of August 2022. Telstra Limited had 4:1 split on the 25th of August 1999. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telstra to cross-verify your projections.Telstra Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Telstra's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Telstra's future price movements. Getting to know how Telstra's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Telstra may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Telstra
For every potential investor in Telstra, whether a beginner or expert, Telstra's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Telstra Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Telstra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Telstra's price trends.View Telstra Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Telstra Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Telstra pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Telstra shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Telstra pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Telstra Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Telstra Risk Indicators
The analysis of Telstra's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Telstra's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting telstra pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7979 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9995 | |||
| Variance | 0.9989 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Telstra
The number of cover stories for Telstra depends on current market conditions and Telstra's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Telstra is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Telstra's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Telstra Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Telstra's price analysis, check to measure Telstra's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Telstra is operating at the current time. Most of Telstra's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Telstra's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Telstra's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Telstra to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.