Tencent Music Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TME Stock | USD 16.80 0.76 4.74% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tencent Music Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 16.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.98. Tencent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tencent Music stock prices and determine the direction of Tencent Music Entertainment's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tencent Music's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Tencent Music's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.38 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.6025 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.1811 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.9451 | Wall Street Target Price 26.7872 |
Using Tencent Music hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tencent Music Entertainment from the perspective of Tencent Music response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tencent Music using Tencent Music's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tencent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tencent Music's stock price.
Tencent Music Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Tencent Music's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Tencent. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Tencent Music stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 19.6717 | Short Percent 0.0377 | Short Ratio 4.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.9 M | 50 Day MA 18.2394 |
Tencent Music Entert Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Tencent Music's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Tencent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Tencent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Tencent Music Entertainment. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Tencent Music Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
Tencent Music's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tencent Music Entertainment stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tencent Music's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tencent Music stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tencent Music's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tencent Music Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 16.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.98. Tencent Music after-hype prediction price | USD 16.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tencent Music to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tencent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tencent Music Entertainment will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Tencent Music trading at USD 16.8, that is roughly USD 0.005355 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tencent Music's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tencent Music Entertainment options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Tencent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Tencent Music's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Tencent Music's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Tencent Music stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Tencent Music's open interest, investors have to compare it to Tencent Music's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Tencent Music is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Tencent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Tencent Music Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tencent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tencent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tencent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tencent Music Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Tencent Music's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-03-31 | Previous Quarter 11 B | Current Value 11.3 B | Quarterly Volatility 5.9 B |
Tencent Music Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tencent Music Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 16.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tencent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tencent Music's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tencent Music Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tencent Music | Tencent Music Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Tencent Music Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tencent Music's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tencent Music's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.09 and 18.88, respectively. We have considered Tencent Music's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tencent Music stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tencent Music stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7561 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4259 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0226 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.9783 |
Predictive Modules for Tencent Music
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tencent Music Entert. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tencent Music After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tencent Music at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tencent Music or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tencent Music, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tencent Music Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tencent Music's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tencent Music's historical news coverage. Tencent Music's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.62 and 18.42, respectively. We have considered Tencent Music's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tencent Music is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tencent Music Entert is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tencent Music Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tencent Music is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tencent Music backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tencent Music, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.62 | 2.40 | 0.11 | 0.60 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.80 | 16.02 | 0.12 |
|
Tencent Music Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Tencent Music Entert is traded for 16.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.6. Tencent is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.02. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.62%. The volatility of related hype on Tencent Music is about 246.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.40. About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Tencent Music was at this time reported as 7.73. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.66. Tencent Music Entert last dividend was issued on the 3rd of April 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tencent Music to cross-verify your projections.Tencent Music Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tencent Music's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tencent Music's future price movements. Getting to know how Tencent Music's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tencent Music may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RDDT | 12.71 | 7 per month | 3.91 | 0.03 | 6.28 | (6.76) | 21.40 | ||
| BIDU | Baidu Inc | 1.54 | 9 per month | 2.17 | 0.12 | 6.07 | (4.54) | 18.81 | |
| CHT | Chunghwa Telecom Co | (0.14) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.05 | (1.14) | 2.99 | |
| CHTR | Charter Communications | (6.08) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.56 | (4.25) | 8.51 | |
| LYV | Live Nation Entertainment | 3.45 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.30 | (2.61) | 11.61 | |
| NBIS | Nebius Group NV | (1.90) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.60 | (7.91) | 23.24 | |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Holdings | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.12 | (2.93) | 10.93 | |
| PINS | (0.70) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.80 | (3.31) | 25.49 | ||
| VOD | Vodafone Group PLC | (0.08) | 7 per month | 1.46 | 0.12 | 2.83 | (2.73) | 11.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tencent Music
For every potential investor in Tencent, whether a beginner or expert, Tencent Music's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tencent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tencent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tencent Music's price trends.Tencent Music Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tencent Music stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tencent Music could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tencent Music by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tencent Music Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tencent Music stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tencent Music shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tencent Music stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tencent Music Entertainment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Tencent Music Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tencent Music's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tencent Music's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tencent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Variance | 5.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tencent Music
The number of cover stories for Tencent Music depends on current market conditions and Tencent Music's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tencent Music is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tencent Music's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Tencent Music Short Properties
Tencent Music's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tencent Music's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tencent Music Entertainment often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tencent Music's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tencent Music's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 27.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tencent Music to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Movies & Entertainment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tencent Music. If investors know Tencent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tencent Music listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.38 | Dividend Share 1.314 | Earnings Share 1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.206 |
The market value of Tencent Music Entert is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tencent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tencent Music's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tencent Music's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tencent Music's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tencent Music's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tencent Music's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tencent Music is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tencent Music's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.