Motley Fool Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TMFC Etf | USD 71.04 0.54 0.77% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motley Fool 100 on the next trading day is expected to be 71.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.31. Motley Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Motley Fool stock prices and determine the direction of Motley Fool 100's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Motley Fool's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of Motley Fool's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Motley Fool hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Motley Fool 100 from the perspective of Motley Fool response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Motley Fool using Motley Fool's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Motley using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Motley Fool's stock price.
Motley Fool Implied Volatility | 0.23 |
Motley Fool's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Motley Fool 100 stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Motley Fool's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Motley Fool stock will not fluctuate a lot when Motley Fool's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motley Fool 100 on the next trading day is expected to be 71.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.31. Motley Fool after-hype prediction price | USD 71.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motley Fool to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Motley contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Motley Fool 100 will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0144% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Motley Fool trading at USD 71.04, that is roughly USD 0.0102 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Motley Fool's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Motley Fool 100 options at the current volatility level of 0.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Motley Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Motley Fool's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Motley Fool's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Motley Fool stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Motley Fool's open interest, investors have to compare it to Motley Fool's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Motley Fool is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Motley. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Motley Fool Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Motley price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Motley using various technical indicators. When you analyze Motley charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Motley Fool Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motley Fool 100 on the next trading day is expected to be 71.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Motley Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Motley Fool's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Motley Fool Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Motley Fool | Motley Fool Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Motley Fool Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Motley Fool's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Motley Fool's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 70.25 and 71.83, respectively. We have considered Motley Fool's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Motley Fool etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Motley Fool etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1259 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0265 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4218 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.31 |
Predictive Modules for Motley Fool
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Motley Fool 100. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Motley Fool After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Motley Fool at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Motley Fool or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Motley Fool, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Motley Fool Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Motley Fool's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Motley Fool's historical news coverage. Motley Fool's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 70.25 and 71.83, respectively. We have considered Motley Fool's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Motley Fool is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Motley Fool 100 is based on 3 months time horizon.
Motley Fool Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Motley Fool is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Motley Fool backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Motley Fool, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.79 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
71.04 | 71.04 | 0.00 |
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Motley Fool Hype Timeline
Motley Fool 100 is at this time traded for 71.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Motley is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 143.64%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Motley Fool is about 2821.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 71.04. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motley Fool to cross-verify your projections.Motley Fool Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Motley Fool's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Motley Fool's future price movements. Getting to know how Motley Fool's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Motley Fool may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ICF | iShares Cohen Steers | (0.21) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.09 | (1.38) | 3.47 | |
| IWL | iShares Russell Top | 1.30 | 6 per month | 0.79 | (0.05) | 1.01 | (1.24) | 3.77 | |
| DES | WisdomTree SmallCap Dividend | 0.44 | 2 per month | 0.62 | 0.08 | 2.34 | (1.19) | 4.64 | |
| QQEW | First Trust NASDAQ 100 | (1.97) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.20 | (1.60) | 3.65 | |
| FLXR | TCW ETF Trust | (0.05) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.47) | 0.20 | (0.18) | 0.54 | |
| QGRW | WisdomTree Trust | (0.02) | 1 per month | 1.19 | (0.04) | 1.70 | (1.97) | 5.18 | |
| TILT | FlexShares Morningstar Market | (2.34) | 3 per month | 0.68 | 0.02 | 1.43 | (1.21) | 3.42 | |
| FIW | First Trust Water | 0.50 | 2 per month | 0.86 | (0.08) | 1.74 | (1.24) | 4.64 | |
| IYG | iShares Financial Services | 0.82 | 4 per month | 0.96 | (0.05) | 1.38 | (1.66) | 4.81 | |
| NULG | Nuveen ESG Large Cap | 1.25 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.43 | (2.22) | 4.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Motley Fool
For every potential investor in Motley, whether a beginner or expert, Motley Fool's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Motley Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Motley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Motley Fool's price trends.Motley Fool Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Motley Fool etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Motley Fool could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Motley Fool by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Motley Fool Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Motley Fool etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Motley Fool shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Motley Fool etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Motley Fool 100 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Motley Fool Risk Indicators
The analysis of Motley Fool's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Motley Fool's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting motley etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6105 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8685 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8118 | |||
| Variance | 0.659 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8973 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7543 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Motley Fool
The number of cover stories for Motley Fool depends on current market conditions and Motley Fool's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Motley Fool is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Motley Fool's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motley Fool to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
The market value of Motley Fool 100 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Motley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Motley Fool's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Motley Fool's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Motley Fool's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Motley Fool's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Motley Fool's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Motley Fool is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Motley Fool's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.