Motley Fool Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TMFC Etf | USD 59.25 0.14 0.24% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motley Fool 100 on the next trading day is expected to be 59.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.20. Motley Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Motley Fool stock prices and determine the direction of Motley Fool 100's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Motley Fool's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Motley |
Motley Fool Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motley Fool 100 on the next trading day is expected to be 59.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Motley Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Motley Fool's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Motley Fool Etf Forecast Pattern
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Motley Fool Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Motley Fool's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Motley Fool's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.33 and 60.17, respectively. We have considered Motley Fool's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Motley Fool etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Motley Fool etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.998 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0713 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.37 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0066 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.2 |
Predictive Modules for Motley Fool
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Motley Fool 100. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Motley Fool
For every potential investor in Motley, whether a beginner or expert, Motley Fool's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Motley Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Motley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Motley Fool's price trends.Motley Fool Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Motley Fool etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Motley Fool could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Motley Fool by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Motley Fool 100 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Motley Fool's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Motley Fool's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Motley Fool Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Motley Fool etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Motley Fool shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Motley Fool etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Motley Fool 100 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Motley Fool Risk Indicators
The analysis of Motley Fool's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Motley Fool's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting motley etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6364 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8044 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.918 | |||
| Variance | 0.8426 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6471 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Motley Fool 100 offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Motley Fool's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Motley Fool 100 Etf. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Motley Fool 100 Etf:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motley Fool to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
The market value of Motley Fool 100 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Motley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Motley Fool's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Motley Fool's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Motley Fool's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Motley Fool's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Motley Fool's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Motley Fool is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Motley Fool's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.