1290 Retirement Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

TNXIX Fund  USD 21.58  0.15  0.70%   
1290 Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of 1290 Retirement's share price is at 50. This usually implies that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling 1290 Retirement, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 50

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of 1290 Retirement's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with 1290 Retirement 2060, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using 1290 Retirement hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of 1290 Retirement 2060 from the perspective of 1290 Retirement response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of 1290 Retirement 2060 on the next trading day is expected to be 21.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.48.

1290 Retirement after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 21.43  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 1290 Retirement to cross-verify your projections.

1290 Retirement Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine 1290 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 1290 using various technical indicators. When you analyze 1290 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for 1290 Retirement is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of 1290 Retirement 2060 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

1290 Retirement Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of 1290 Retirement 2060 on the next trading day is expected to be 21.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 1290 Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 1290 Retirement's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

1290 Retirement Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest 1290 Retirement  1290 Retirement Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

1290 Retirement Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting 1290 Retirement's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 1290 Retirement's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.49 and 22.31, respectively. We have considered 1290 Retirement's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.58
21.40
Expected Value
22.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 1290 Retirement mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 1290 Retirement mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.2457
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1881
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0089
SAESum of the absolute errors11.4769
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of 1290 Retirement 2060. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict 1290 Retirement. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for 1290 Retirement

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1290 Retirement 2060. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.5221.4322.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.4521.3622.27
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.1621.5021.84
Details

1290 Retirement After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of 1290 Retirement at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 1290 Retirement or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of 1290 Retirement, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

1290 Retirement Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting 1290 Retirement's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on 1290 Retirement's historical news coverage. 1290 Retirement's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.52 and 22.34, respectively. We have considered 1290 Retirement's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
21.58
21.43
After-hype Price
22.34
Upside
1290 Retirement is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of 1290 Retirement 2060 is based on 3 months time horizon.

1290 Retirement Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as 1290 Retirement is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 1290 Retirement backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 1290 Retirement, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
0.91
 0.00  
 0.00  
1 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
21.58
21.43
0.00 
2,275  
Notes

1290 Retirement Hype Timeline

1290 Retirement 2060 is at this time traded for 21.58. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. 1290 is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on 1290 Retirement is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.58. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 1290 Retirement to cross-verify your projections.

1290 Retirement Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to 1290 Retirement's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 1290 Retirement's future price movements. Getting to know how 1290 Retirement's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 1290 Retirement may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for 1290 Retirement

For every potential investor in 1290, whether a beginner or expert, 1290 Retirement's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 1290 Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 1290. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 1290 Retirement's price trends.

1290 Retirement Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 1290 Retirement mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 1290 Retirement could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 1290 Retirement by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

1290 Retirement Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 1290 Retirement mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 1290 Retirement shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 1290 Retirement mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify 1290 Retirement 2060 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

1290 Retirement Risk Indicators

The analysis of 1290 Retirement's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 1290 Retirement's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 1290 mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for 1290 Retirement

The number of cover stories for 1290 Retirement depends on current market conditions and 1290 Retirement's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that 1290 Retirement is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about 1290 Retirement's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in 1290 Mutual Fund

1290 Retirement financial ratios help investors to determine whether 1290 Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 1290 with respect to the benefits of owning 1290 Retirement security.
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