Tocqueville Fund Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Tocqueville Fund Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Tocqueville price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tocqueville using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tocqueville charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Tocqueville Fund is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of The Tocqueville Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Tocqueville Fund Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of The Tocqueville Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 58.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.27.

Tocqueville Fund Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Tocqueville Fund Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tocqueville Fund mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tocqueville Fund mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of The Tocqueville Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Tocqueville Fund. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Tocqueville Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tocqueville Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 55.98 57.42 58.86 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 51.68 61.01 62.45 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 49.23 54.41 59.59 Details

Tocqueville Fund After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Tocqueville Fund Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Tocqueville Fund Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Tocqueville Fund Hype Timeline

Tocqueville Fund is at this time traded for 57.42. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.07. Tocqueville is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Tocqueville Fund is about 525.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 57.35. The company last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tocqueville Fund to cross-verify your projections.

Tocqueville Fund Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Tocqueville Fund

For every potential investor in Tocqueville, whether a beginner or expert, Tocqueville Fund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tocqueville Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tocqueville. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tocqueville Fund's price trends.

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Tocqueville Fund Market Strength Events

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