Timothy Plan Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

TPHAX Fund  USD 9.14  0.01  0.11%   
Timothy Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Timothy Plan's mutual fund price is slightly above 63. This usually implies that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Timothy, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Timothy Plan's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Timothy Plan High, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Timothy Plan hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Timothy Plan High from the perspective of Timothy Plan response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Timothy Plan High on the next trading day is expected to be 9.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.99.

Timothy Plan after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.14  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Timothy Plan to cross-verify your projections.

Timothy Plan Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Timothy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Timothy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Timothy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Timothy Plan price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Timothy Plan Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Timothy Plan High on the next trading day is expected to be 9.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Timothy Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Timothy Plan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Timothy Plan Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Timothy Plan  Timothy Plan Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Timothy Plan Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Timothy Plan's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Timothy Plan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.02 and 9.29, respectively. We have considered Timothy Plan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.14
9.16
Expected Value
9.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Timothy Plan mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Timothy Plan mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.5349
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0162
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0018
SAESum of the absolute errors0.9903
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Timothy Plan High historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Timothy Plan

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Timothy Plan High. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.009.149.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.258.3910.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Timothy Plan. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Timothy Plan's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Timothy Plan's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Timothy Plan High.

Timothy Plan After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Timothy Plan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Timothy Plan or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Timothy Plan, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Timothy Plan Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Timothy Plan's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Timothy Plan's historical news coverage. Timothy Plan's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.00 and 9.28, respectively. We have considered Timothy Plan's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.14
9.14
After-hype Price
9.28
Upside
Timothy Plan is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Timothy Plan High is based on 3 months time horizon.

Timothy Plan Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Timothy Plan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Timothy Plan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Timothy Plan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.03 
0.14
 0.00  
  0.17 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.14
9.14
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Timothy Plan Hype Timeline

Timothy Plan High is at this time traded for 9.14. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.17. Timothy is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Timothy Plan is about 2.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.97. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Timothy Plan to cross-verify your projections.

Timothy Plan Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Timothy Plan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Timothy Plan's future price movements. Getting to know how Timothy Plan's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Timothy Plan may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Timothy Plan

For every potential investor in Timothy, whether a beginner or expert, Timothy Plan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Timothy Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Timothy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Timothy Plan's price trends.

Timothy Plan Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Timothy Plan mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Timothy Plan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Timothy Plan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Timothy Plan Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Timothy Plan mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Timothy Plan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Timothy Plan mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Timothy Plan High entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Timothy Plan Risk Indicators

The analysis of Timothy Plan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Timothy Plan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting timothy mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Timothy Plan

The number of cover stories for Timothy Plan depends on current market conditions and Timothy Plan's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Timothy Plan is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Timothy Plan's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Timothy Mutual Fund

Timothy Plan financial ratios help investors to determine whether Timothy Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Timothy with respect to the benefits of owning Timothy Plan security.
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