Trivago NV Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| TRVG Stock | USD 2.86 0.01 0.35% |
Trivago Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Trivago NV's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 1st of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Trivago NV's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.367 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0144 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0346 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.0461 | Wall Street Target Price 4.2151 |
Using Trivago NV hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trivago NV from the perspective of Trivago NV response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Trivago NV using Trivago NV's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Trivago using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Trivago NV's stock price.
Trivago NV Implied Volatility | 1.37 |
Trivago NV's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Trivago NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Trivago NV's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Trivago NV stock will not fluctuate a lot when Trivago NV's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Trivago NV on the next trading day is expected to be 2.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.01. Trivago NV after-hype prediction price | USD 2.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trivago NV to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Trivago Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Trivago NV's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Trivago NV's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Trivago NV stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Trivago NV's open interest, investors have to compare it to Trivago NV's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Trivago NV is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Trivago. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Trivago NV Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trivago price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trivago using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trivago charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trivago NV Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Trivago NV on the next trading day is expected to be 2.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trivago Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trivago NV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trivago NV Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trivago NV | Trivago NV Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Trivago NV Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trivago NV's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trivago NV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.75 and 4.97, respectively. We have considered Trivago NV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trivago NV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trivago NV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.1631 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0055 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0509 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.005 |
Predictive Modules for Trivago NV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trivago NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trivago NV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trivago NV After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trivago NV at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trivago NV or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trivago NV, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trivago NV Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trivago NV's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trivago NV's historical news coverage. Trivago NV's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.74 and 4.96, respectively. We have considered Trivago NV's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trivago NV is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trivago NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trivago NV Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trivago NV is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trivago NV backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trivago NV, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.11 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.86 | 2.85 | 0.35 |
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Trivago NV Hype Timeline
Trivago NV is at this time traded for 2.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Trivago is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.85. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Trivago NV is about 211000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.86. About 35.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.85. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Trivago NV has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.28. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2023. The firm had 1:5 split on the 17th of November 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trivago NV to cross-verify your projections.Trivago NV Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trivago NV's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trivago NV's future price movements. Getting to know how Trivago NV's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trivago NV may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TRUE | TrueCar | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.81 | 0.03 | 4.74 | (3.48) | 12.10 | |
| UPXI | Upexi Inc | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 11.51 | (10.16) | 30.97 | |
| ATNI | ATN International | 0.08 | 7 per month | 1.72 | 0.22 | 5.16 | (3.13) | 22.28 | |
| AREN | Arena Group Holdings | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.08 | (6.65) | 27.15 | |
| SSP | E W Scripps | 0.20 | 11 per month | 3.77 | 0.1 | 7.52 | (6.60) | 53.49 | |
| RDCM | Radcom | 0.1 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.21 | (2.72) | 10.91 | |
| CXDO | Crexendo | (0.16) | 10 per month | 3.02 | 0.04 | 7.31 | (4.78) | 16.36 | |
| EVC | Entravision Communications | (0.02) | 10 per month | 1.51 | 0.12 | 5.93 | (3.35) | 48.82 | |
| IZEA | IZEA Inc | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 4.58 | (4.35) | 11.34 | |
| STRZ | Starz Entertainment LLC | (0.32) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.11 | (5.15) | 17.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trivago NV
For every potential investor in Trivago, whether a beginner or expert, Trivago NV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trivago Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trivago. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trivago NV's price trends.Trivago NV Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trivago NV stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trivago NV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trivago NV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trivago NV Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trivago NV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trivago NV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trivago NV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trivago NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trivago NV Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trivago NV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trivago NV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trivago stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Variance | 4.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trivago NV
The number of cover stories for Trivago NV depends on current market conditions and Trivago NV's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trivago NV is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trivago NV's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Trivago NV Short Properties
Trivago NV's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trivago NV's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trivago NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trivago NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trivago NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 133.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trivago NV to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Trivago Stock please use our How to Invest in Trivago NV guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Can Interactive Media & Services industry sustain growth momentum? Does Trivago have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trivago NV. If investors know Trivago will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Trivago NV demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.367 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.133 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Trivago NV requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Trivago's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Trivago NV's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Trivago NV's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trivago NV's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trivago NV is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Trivago NV's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.