Trevi Therapeutics Stock Forward View
| TRVI Stock | USD 11.46 0.52 4.75% |
Trevi Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Trevi Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 8th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Trevi Therapeutics' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.11) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.36) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.45) | Wall Street Target Price 21.5455 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.10) |
Using Trevi Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trevi Therapeutics from the perspective of Trevi Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Trevi Therapeutics using Trevi Therapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Trevi using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Trevi Therapeutics' stock price.
Trevi Therapeutics Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Trevi Therapeutics' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Trevi. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Trevi Therapeutics stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 8.9564 | Short Percent 0.1395 | Short Ratio 10.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 14.1 M | 50 Day MA 11.9426 |
Trevi Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trevi Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 11.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.78.Trevi Therapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Trevi Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Trevi. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Trevi can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Trevi Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Trevi Therapeutics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Trevi Therapeutics.
Trevi Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 1.6 |
Trevi Therapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Trevi Therapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Trevi Therapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Trevi Therapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Trevi Therapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trevi Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 11.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.78. Trevi Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 11.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trevi Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Trevi contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Trevi Therapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.1% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Trevi Therapeutics trading at USD 11.46, that is roughly USD 0.0115 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Trevi Therapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Trevi Therapeutics options at the current volatility level of 1.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Trevi Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Trevi Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Trevi Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Trevi Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Trevi Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Trevi Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Trevi Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Trevi. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Trevi Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trevi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trevi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trevi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trevi Therapeutics Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Trevi Therapeutics' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2017-12-31 | Previous Quarter 117.1 M | Current Value 56.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 25.6 M |
Trevi Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trevi Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 11.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trevi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trevi Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trevi Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trevi Therapeutics | Trevi Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Trevi Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trevi Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trevi Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.36 and 15.66, respectively. We have considered Trevi Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trevi Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trevi Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6714 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3898 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0326 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.7764 |
Predictive Modules for Trevi Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trevi Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trevi Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trevi Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trevi Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trevi Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trevi Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trevi Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trevi Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trevi Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Trevi Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.29 and 15.59, respectively. We have considered Trevi Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trevi Therapeutics is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trevi Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trevi Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trevi Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trevi Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trevi Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 4.15 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.46 | 11.44 | 0.17 |
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Trevi Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Trevi Therapeutics is at this time traded for 11.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Trevi is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.44. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Trevi Therapeutics is about 3293.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.47. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.37. Trevi Therapeutics had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trevi Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Trevi Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trevi Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trevi Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Trevi Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trevi Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARDX | Ardelyx | (0.11) | 9 per month | 3.02 | 0.07 | 8.50 | (5.04) | 25.22 | |
| WVE | Wave Life Sciences | 0.36 | 10 per month | 4.09 | 0.09 | 6.72 | (6.18) | 164.47 | |
| NVAX | Novavax | (0.51) | 9 per month | 3.14 | 0.01 | 6.10 | (5.54) | 26.98 | |
| ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma Common | 1.47 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 9.05 | (11.66) | 68.95 | |
| UPB | Upstream Bio | (0.06) | 9 per month | 4.19 | 0.02 | 7.84 | (5.57) | 24.37 | |
| TRML | Tourmaline Bio | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 6.53 | (2.70) | 58.54 | |
| TERN | Terns Pharmaceuticals | 0.70 | 20 per month | 2.49 | 0.24 | 8.83 | (5.57) | 43.41 | |
| ZYME | Zymeworks Common Stock | (1.14) | 7 per month | 2.90 | 0.06 | 5.40 | (4.72) | 36.09 | |
| PGEN | Precigen | (0.1) | 10 per month | 4.66 | 0.02 | 7.57 | (7.08) | 38.64 | |
| ORIC | Oric Pharmaceuticals | 0.64 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.28 | (6.13) | 20.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trevi Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Trevi, whether a beginner or expert, Trevi Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trevi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trevi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trevi Therapeutics' price trends.Trevi Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trevi Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trevi Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trevi Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trevi Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trevi Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trevi Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trevi Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trevi Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trevi Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trevi Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trevi Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trevi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.12 | |||
| Variance | 16.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trevi Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Trevi Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Trevi Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trevi Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trevi Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Trevi Therapeutics Short Properties
Trevi Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Trevi Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trevi Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trevi Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trevi Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 101 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 107.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trevi Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Trevi Stock please use our How to Invest in Trevi Therapeutics guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is there potential for Pharmaceuticals market expansion? Will Trevi introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trevi Therapeutics. If investors know Trevi will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Trevi Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Understanding Trevi Therapeutics requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Trevi's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Trevi Therapeutics' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Trevi Therapeutics' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trevi Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trevi Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Trevi Therapeutics' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.