Tristar Gold Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TSG Stock | CAD 0.31 0.02 6.06% |
Tristar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Tristar Gold's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.45) | Wall Street Target Price 0.8252 |
Using Tristar Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tristar Gold from the perspective of Tristar Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tristar Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 0.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.46. Tristar Gold after-hype prediction price | CAD 0.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Tristar |
Tristar Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tristar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tristar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tristar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tristar Gold Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tristar Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 0.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tristar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tristar Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tristar Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tristar Gold | Tristar Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Tristar Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tristar Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tristar Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 5.36, respectively. We have considered Tristar Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tristar Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tristar Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.196 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0023 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0075 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0333 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.46 |
Predictive Modules for Tristar Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tristar Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tristar Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tristar Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tristar Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tristar Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tristar Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tristar Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tristar Gold's historical news coverage. Tristar Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 5.34, respectively. We have considered Tristar Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tristar Gold is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tristar Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tristar Gold Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tristar Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tristar Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tristar Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.11 | 5.05 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.31 | 0.29 | 6.45 |
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Tristar Gold Hype Timeline
Tristar Gold is at this time traded for 0.31on TSX Venture Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Tristar is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.29. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -6.45%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.11%. The volatility of related hype on Tristar Gold is about 9.223372036854776E16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.31. About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Tristar Gold was at this time reported as 0.12. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.01. Tristar Gold had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tristar Gold to cross-verify your projections.Tristar Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tristar Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tristar Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Tristar Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tristar Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WHN | Westhaven Ventures | (0.02) | 3 per month | 4.11 | 0.06 | 9.09 | (7.69) | 58.17 | |
| ROS | Roscan Gold Corp | 0.00 | 3 per month | 4.53 | 0.18 | 11.76 | (11.11) | 26.79 | |
| YGT | Gold Terra Resource | (0.01) | 2 per month | 4.74 | 0.14 | 15.38 | (9.09) | 44.32 | |
| EDG | Endurance Gold Corp | (0.02) | 8 per month | 4.32 | 0.17 | 21.67 | (8.82) | 56.39 | |
| ALTA | Altamira Gold Corp | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.41 | (7.69) | 22.02 | |
| RDG | Ridgeline Minerals Corp | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 8.00 | (8.00) | 29.17 | |
| VIO | Societe d Exploration | 0.01 | 7 per month | 3.93 | 0.06 | 9.09 | (8.33) | 28.57 | |
| RYR | Royal Road Minerals | 0.00 | 4 per month | 3.46 | 0.04 | 8.70 | (7.69) | 33.33 | |
| GGO | Galleon Gold Corp | 0.05 | 4 per month | 4.61 | 0.12 | 9.52 | (9.68) | 34.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tristar Gold
For every potential investor in Tristar, whether a beginner or expert, Tristar Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tristar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tristar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tristar Gold's price trends.Tristar Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tristar Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tristar Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tristar Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tristar Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tristar Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tristar Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tristar Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tristar Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6224.55 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
Tristar Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tristar Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tristar Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tristar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.9 | |||
| Variance | 23.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 40.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tristar Gold
The number of cover stories for Tristar Gold depends on current market conditions and Tristar Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tristar Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tristar Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Tristar Stock Analysis
When running Tristar Gold's price analysis, check to measure Tristar Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tristar Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Tristar Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tristar Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tristar Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tristar Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.