Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TSMTX Fund | USD 16.10 0.05 0.31% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tiaa Cref Lifestyle Moderate on the next trading day is expected to be 16.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.93. Tiaa-cref Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Tiaa-cref Lifestyle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tiaa Cref Lifestyle Moderate from the perspective of Tiaa-cref Lifestyle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tiaa Cref Lifestyle Moderate on the next trading day is expected to be 16.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.93. Tiaa-cref Lifestyle after-hype prediction price | USD 16.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Tiaa-cref |
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tiaa-cref price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tiaa-cref using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tiaa-cref charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tiaa Cref Lifestyle Moderate on the next trading day is expected to be 16.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tiaa-cref Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tiaa-cref Lifestyle | Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.36 and 16.84, respectively. We have considered Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tiaa-cref Lifestyle mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tiaa-cref Lifestyle mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7253 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0162 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0644 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0042 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.93 |
Predictive Modules for Tiaa-cref Lifestyle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tiaa Cref Lifestyle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tiaa-cref Lifestyle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tiaa-cref Lifestyle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Tiaa-cref Lifestyle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's historical news coverage. Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.36 and 16.84, respectively. We have considered Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tiaa Cref Lifestyle is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Tiaa-cref Lifestyle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tiaa-cref Lifestyle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tiaa-cref Lifestyle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.10 | 16.10 | 0.00 |
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Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Hype Timeline
Tiaa Cref Lifestyle is at this time traded for 16.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.42. Tiaa-cref is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Tiaa-cref Lifestyle is about 17.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.52. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of March 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tiaa-cref Lifestyle to cross-verify your projections.Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's future price movements. Getting to know how Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tiaa-cref Lifestyle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XAVKX | Advent Claymore Convertible | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.13 | (1.55) | 3.76 | |
| ARBOX | Absolute Convertible Arbitrage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 0.09 | (0.09) | 3.52 | |
| LCFYX | Lord Abbett Convertible | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.91 | 0.01 | 1.95 | (1.78) | 3.81 | |
| FSAWX | Fidelity Sai Convertible | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.50) | 0.19 | (0.09) | 1.03 | |
| PCNTX | Putnam Convertible Securities | 20.89 | 2 per month | 0.87 | 0.02 | 1.58 | (1.58) | 5.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tiaa-cref Lifestyle
For every potential investor in Tiaa-cref, whether a beginner or expert, Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tiaa-cref Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tiaa-cref. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's price trends.Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tiaa-cref Lifestyle mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tiaa-cref Lifestyle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tiaa-cref Lifestyle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tiaa-cref Lifestyle mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tiaa-cref Lifestyle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tiaa-cref Lifestyle mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Tiaa Cref Lifestyle Moderate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.025 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 |
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tiaa-cref mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4216 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2407 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7124 | |||
| Variance | 0.5075 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2476 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0579 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tiaa-cref Lifestyle
The number of cover stories for Tiaa-cref Lifestyle depends on current market conditions and Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tiaa-cref Lifestyle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tiaa-cref Lifestyle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Tiaa-cref Mutual Fund
Tiaa-cref Lifestyle financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tiaa-cref Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tiaa-cref with respect to the benefits of owning Tiaa-cref Lifestyle security.
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