Turism Felix Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

TUFE Stock   0.33  0.04  13.79%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Turism Felix B on the next trading day is expected to be 0.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.51. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Turism Felix's stock prices and determine the direction of Turism Felix B's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Turism Felix's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
A two period moving average forecast for Turism Felix is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Turism Felix Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Turism Felix B on the next trading day is expected to be 0.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Turism Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Turism Felix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Turism Felix Stock Forecast Pattern

Turism Felix Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Turism Felix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Turism Felix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 4.26, respectively. We have considered Turism Felix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.33
0.33
Expected Value
4.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Turism Felix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Turism Felix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.4924
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -7.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0084
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0269
SAESum of the absolute errors0.505
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Turism Felix B price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Turism Felix. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Turism Felix

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Turism Felix B. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Turism Felix

For every potential investor in Turism, whether a beginner or expert, Turism Felix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Turism Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Turism. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Turism Felix's price trends.

Turism Felix Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Turism Felix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Turism Felix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Turism Felix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Turism Felix B Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Turism Felix's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Turism Felix's current price.

Turism Felix Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Turism Felix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Turism Felix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Turism Felix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Turism Felix B entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Turism Felix Risk Indicators

The analysis of Turism Felix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Turism Felix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting turism stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Turism Felix

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Turism Felix position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Turism Felix will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Turism Felix could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Turism Felix when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Turism Felix - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Turism Felix B to buy it.
The correlation of Turism Felix is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Turism Felix moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Turism Felix B moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Turism Felix can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching