Nokian Renkaat Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

TYRES Stock   10.83  0.16  1.46%   
Nokian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Nokian Renkaat's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Nokian Renkaat's stock price is under 61. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Nokian, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 61

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Nokian Renkaat's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Nokian Renkaat Oyj, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Nokian Renkaat hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nokian Renkaat Oyj from the perspective of Nokian Renkaat response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Nokian Renkaat Oyj on the next trading day is expected to be 11.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.95.

Nokian Renkaat after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 10.83  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nokian Renkaat to cross-verify your projections.

Nokian Renkaat Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Nokian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nokian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nokian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Nokian Renkaat price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Nokian Renkaat Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Nokian Renkaat Oyj on the next trading day is expected to be 11.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nokian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nokian Renkaat's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nokian Renkaat Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Nokian Renkaat  Nokian Renkaat Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Nokian Renkaat Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nokian Renkaat's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nokian Renkaat's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.66 and 13.76, respectively. We have considered Nokian Renkaat's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.83
11.71
Expected Value
13.76
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nokian Renkaat stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nokian Renkaat stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7278
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4253
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0414
SAESum of the absolute errors25.9461
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Nokian Renkaat Oyj historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Nokian Renkaat

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nokian Renkaat Oyj. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nokian Renkaat's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.7610.8312.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.2212.2914.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
-1.5610.9011.52
Details

Nokian Renkaat After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Nokian Renkaat at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nokian Renkaat or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nokian Renkaat, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Nokian Renkaat Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Nokian Renkaat's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nokian Renkaat's historical news coverage. Nokian Renkaat's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.76 and 12.90, respectively. We have considered Nokian Renkaat's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
10.83
10.83
After-hype Price
12.90
Upside
Nokian Renkaat is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nokian Renkaat Oyj is based on 3 months time horizon.

Nokian Renkaat Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nokian Renkaat is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nokian Renkaat backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nokian Renkaat, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.45 
2.05
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.83
10.83
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Nokian Renkaat Hype Timeline

Nokian Renkaat Oyj is at this time traded for 10.83on Helsinki Exchange of Finland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Nokian is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.45%. %. The volatility of related hype on Nokian Renkaat is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.83. About 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.84. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Nokian Renkaat Oyj last dividend was issued on the 2nd of November 2022. The entity had 10:1 split on the 18th of April 2005. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nokian Renkaat to cross-verify your projections.

Nokian Renkaat Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Nokian Renkaat's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nokian Renkaat's future price movements. Getting to know how Nokian Renkaat's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nokian Renkaat may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
METSBMetsa Board Oyj 0.00 0 per month 2.06  0.02  5.35 (3.46) 11.32 
METSAMetsa Board Oyj 0.00 0 per month 2.21  0  3.83 (3.40) 14.59 
FSKRSFiskars Oyj Abp 0.00 0 per month 1.38 (0.07) 2.06 (2.69) 6.18 
PUUILOPuuilo Oyj 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.28) 1.31 (1.74) 9.33 
RELAISRelais Group Oyj 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 1.85 (2.19) 8.02 
HARVIAHarvia Oyj 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.91 (3.12) 14.04 
PIIPPOPiippo OYJ 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.75 (4.47) 19.07 
MUSTIMusti Group Oyj 0.00 0 per month 0.88 (0.10) 2.21 (1.69) 5.57 
MEKKOMarimekko Oyj 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 1.88 (2.05) 16.79 
LINDEXLindex Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.07) 2.07 (2.80) 15.41 

Other Forecasting Options for Nokian Renkaat

For every potential investor in Nokian, whether a beginner or expert, Nokian Renkaat's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nokian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nokian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nokian Renkaat's price trends.

Nokian Renkaat Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nokian Renkaat stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nokian Renkaat could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nokian Renkaat by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nokian Renkaat Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nokian Renkaat stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nokian Renkaat shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nokian Renkaat stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nokian Renkaat Oyj entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nokian Renkaat Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nokian Renkaat's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nokian Renkaat's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nokian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Nokian Renkaat

The number of cover stories for Nokian Renkaat depends on current market conditions and Nokian Renkaat's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nokian Renkaat is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nokian Renkaat's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Nokian Stock

Nokian Renkaat financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nokian Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nokian with respect to the benefits of owning Nokian Renkaat security.