Ulta Beauty Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

U1LT34 Stock  BRL 128.60  0.50  0.39%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 127.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 169.50. Ulta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ulta Beauty stock prices and determine the direction of Ulta Beauty's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ulta Beauty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Ulta Beauty is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Ulta Beauty 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 127.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97, mean absolute percentage error of 17.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 169.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ulta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ulta Beauty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ulta Beauty Stock Forecast Pattern

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Ulta Beauty Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ulta Beauty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ulta Beauty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 125.10 and 130.32, respectively. We have considered Ulta Beauty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
128.60
125.10
Downside
127.71
Expected Value
130.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ulta Beauty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ulta Beauty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.5925
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.7896
MADMean absolute deviation2.9737
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0271
SAESum of the absolute errors169.5
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Ulta Beauty. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Ulta Beauty and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Ulta Beauty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ulta Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
125.47128.10130.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
115.29152.44155.07
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
94.29111.42128.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ulta Beauty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ulta Beauty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ulta Beauty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ulta Beauty.

Other Forecasting Options for Ulta Beauty

For every potential investor in Ulta, whether a beginner or expert, Ulta Beauty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ulta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ulta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ulta Beauty's price trends.

Ulta Beauty Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ulta Beauty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ulta Beauty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ulta Beauty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ulta Beauty Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ulta Beauty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ulta Beauty's current price.

Ulta Beauty Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ulta Beauty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ulta Beauty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ulta Beauty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ulta Beauty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ulta Beauty Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ulta Beauty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ulta Beauty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ulta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ulta Stock

When determining whether Ulta Beauty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ulta Beauty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ulta Beauty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ulta Beauty Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ulta Beauty to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ulta Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.