Umbra Applied Pink Sheet Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

UATG Stock  USD 0  0.0002  4.26%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Umbra Applied Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0002 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.01. Umbra Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Umbra Applied's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Umbra Applied Technologies is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Umbra Applied 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Umbra Applied Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0002, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000009, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Umbra Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Umbra Applied's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Umbra Applied Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Umbra Applied Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Umbra Applied's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Umbra Applied's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.000049 and 7.60, respectively. We have considered Umbra Applied's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0
0.000049
Downside
0
Expected Value
7.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Umbra Applied pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Umbra Applied pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria96.3544
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation2.0E-4
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0666
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0132
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Umbra Applied. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Umbra Applied Technologies and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Umbra Applied

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Umbra Applied Techno. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Umbra Applied's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.017.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.0007.59
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Umbra Applied

For every potential investor in Umbra, whether a beginner or expert, Umbra Applied's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Umbra Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Umbra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Umbra Applied's price trends.

Umbra Applied Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Umbra Applied pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Umbra Applied could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Umbra Applied by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Umbra Applied Techno Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Umbra Applied's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Umbra Applied's current price.

Umbra Applied Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Umbra Applied pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Umbra Applied shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Umbra Applied pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Umbra Applied Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Umbra Applied Risk Indicators

The analysis of Umbra Applied's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Umbra Applied's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting umbra pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Umbra Pink Sheet

Umbra Applied financial ratios help investors to determine whether Umbra Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Umbra with respect to the benefits of owning Umbra Applied security.