Ubon Bio Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| UBE Stock | 0.48 0.01 2.13% |
Ubon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Ubon Bio's share price is at 59. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ubon Bio, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ubon Bio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ubon Bio Ethanol from the perspective of Ubon Bio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ubon Bio Ethanol on the next trading day is expected to be 0.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.44. Ubon Bio after-hype prediction price | THB 0.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ubon |
Ubon Bio Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ubon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ubon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ubon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ubon Bio Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ubon Bio Ethanol on the next trading day is expected to be 0.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ubon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ubon Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ubon Bio Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ubon Bio | Ubon Bio Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ubon Bio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ubon Bio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ubon Bio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 2.39, respectively. We have considered Ubon Bio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ubon Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ubon Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0011 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0075 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.4412 |
Predictive Modules for Ubon Bio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ubon Bio Ethanol. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ubon Bio After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ubon Bio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ubon Bio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ubon Bio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ubon Bio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ubon Bio's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ubon Bio's historical news coverage. Ubon Bio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 2.39, respectively. We have considered Ubon Bio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ubon Bio is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ubon Bio Ethanol is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ubon Bio Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ubon Bio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ubon Bio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ubon Bio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.48 | 0.48 | 0.00 |
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Ubon Bio Hype Timeline
Ubon Bio Ethanol is at this time traded for 0.48on Thailand Exchange of Thailand. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ubon is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ubon Bio is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.48. About 60.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.01. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Ubon Bio Ethanol last dividend was issued on the 31st of March 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ubon Bio to cross-verify your projections.Ubon Bio Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ubon Bio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ubon Bio's future price movements. Getting to know how Ubon Bio's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ubon Bio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APCO | Asian Phytoceuticals Public | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.43 | (1.40) | 4.86 | |
| UPOIC | United Palm Oil | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.92 | 0.02 | 2.31 | (2.17) | 6.82 | |
| CPI | Chumporn Palm Oil | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.48 | 0.08 | 1.27 | (1.17) | 3.00 | |
| DDD | Do Day Dream | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.42 | 0.07 | 3.60 | (2.75) | 9.69 | |
| BR | Bangkok Ranch PCL | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.30 | (0.07) | 1.20 | (0.61) | 3.64 | |
| SNPS | Specialty Natural Products | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.02 | 1.81 | (1.79) | 7.86 | |
| TNR | Thai Nippon Rubber | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.77 | (1.74) | 6.06 | |
| PQS | Premier Quality Starch | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.61 | (2.03) | 10.10 | |
| TC | Tropical Canning Public | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.77 | (0.02) | 1.92 | (1.39) | 3.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ubon Bio
For every potential investor in Ubon, whether a beginner or expert, Ubon Bio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ubon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ubon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ubon Bio's price trends.Ubon Bio Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ubon Bio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ubon Bio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ubon Bio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ubon Bio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ubon Bio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ubon Bio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ubon Bio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ubon Bio Ethanol entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ubon Bio Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ubon Bio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ubon Bio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ubon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.39 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ubon Bio
The number of cover stories for Ubon Bio depends on current market conditions and Ubon Bio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ubon Bio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ubon Bio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ubon Bio Short Properties
Ubon Bio's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ubon Bio's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ubon Bio Ethanol often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ubon Bio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ubon Bio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.9 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 336.1 M |
Other Information on Investing in Ubon Stock
Ubon Bio financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ubon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ubon with respect to the benefits of owning Ubon Bio security.