Direxion Daily ETF Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| UBOT ETF | USD 27.86 0.56 2.05% |
The Polynomial Regression output for Direxion Daily Robotics is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate a tighter fit to recent price behavior. The Polynomial Regression model projects Direxion Daily at 30.83 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. Direxion Daily's Polynomial Regression forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Direxion Daily at 30.83 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.13 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and sum of absolute errors of 68.72 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Direxion Daily's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Direxion Daily | Direxion Daily Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Direxion Daily's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The current forecast range spans downside near 27.20 and upside near 34.46. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Direxion Daily ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7925 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1265 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0454 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 68.7185 |
Other Forecasting Options for Direxion Daily
Relative Strength Index values for Direxion Daily measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in Direxion Daily's returns informs position size and stop-loss calibration. Candlestick pattern analysis of Direxion Daily ETF daily data reveals short-term reversal or continuation signals. Identifying these patterns in Direxion Daily ETF data supports better trade timing.Direxion Daily Related Equities
Checking Direxion Daily against related firms within the Trading--Leveraged Equity space reveals where the stock stands among peers. Checking Direxion Daily against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Peer pricing is more meaningful when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets. These checks provide a starting point for deeper study of Direxion Daily's strengths and weak spots.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Direxion Daily Market Strength Events
Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for Direxion Daily reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing Direxion Daily near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for Direxion Daily. Combine market strength readings with the price and volatility measures above for a more complete analytical picture of Direxion Daily.
Direxion Daily Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Direxion Daily quantifies how much price variability the ETF has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in Direxion Daily have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as Direxion Daily's price. Elevated expected shortfall for Direxion Daily suggests that tail-risk hedging may be more important than average-case optimization.
| Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.63 | |||
| Variance | 13.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.