Undiscovered Managers Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

UBVCX Fund  USD 72.55  0.53  0.73%   
Undiscovered Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Undiscovered Managers' mutual fund price is slightly above 63. This usually implies that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Undiscovered, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Undiscovered Managers' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Undiscovered Managers Behavioral, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Undiscovered Managers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Undiscovered Managers Behavioral from the perspective of Undiscovered Managers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Undiscovered Managers Behavioral on the next trading day is expected to be 71.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.81.

Undiscovered Managers after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 72.55  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Undiscovered Managers to cross-verify your projections.

Undiscovered Managers Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Undiscovered price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Undiscovered using various technical indicators. When you analyze Undiscovered charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Undiscovered Managers polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Undiscovered Managers Behavioral as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Undiscovered Managers Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Undiscovered Managers Behavioral on the next trading day is expected to be 71.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 1.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Undiscovered Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Undiscovered Managers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Undiscovered Managers Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Undiscovered Managers  Undiscovered Managers Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Undiscovered Managers Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Undiscovered Managers' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Undiscovered Managers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.64 and 72.95, respectively. We have considered Undiscovered Managers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
72.55
71.30
Expected Value
72.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Undiscovered Managers mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Undiscovered Managers mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.7724
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0296
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0156
SAESum of the absolute errors62.8064
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Undiscovered Managers historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Undiscovered Managers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Undiscovered Managers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Undiscovered Managers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
70.8972.5574.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
65.3076.7478.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
68.0370.8673.69
Details

Undiscovered Managers After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Undiscovered Managers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Undiscovered Managers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Undiscovered Managers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Undiscovered Managers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Undiscovered Managers' mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Undiscovered Managers' historical news coverage. Undiscovered Managers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 70.89 and 74.21, respectively. We have considered Undiscovered Managers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
72.55
72.55
After-hype Price
74.21
Upside
Undiscovered Managers is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Undiscovered Managers is based on 3 months time horizon.

Undiscovered Managers Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Undiscovered Managers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Undiscovered Managers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Undiscovered Managers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.22 
1.66
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
72.55
72.55
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Undiscovered Managers Hype Timeline

Undiscovered Managers is at this time traded for 72.55. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Undiscovered is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Undiscovered Managers is about 9960.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 72.55. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.83. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Undiscovered Managers last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Undiscovered Managers to cross-verify your projections.

Undiscovered Managers Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Undiscovered Managers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Undiscovered Managers' future price movements. Getting to know how Undiscovered Managers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Undiscovered Managers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Undiscovered Managers

For every potential investor in Undiscovered, whether a beginner or expert, Undiscovered Managers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Undiscovered Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Undiscovered. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Undiscovered Managers' price trends.

Undiscovered Managers Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Undiscovered Managers mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Undiscovered Managers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Undiscovered Managers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Undiscovered Managers Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Undiscovered Managers mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Undiscovered Managers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Undiscovered Managers mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Undiscovered Managers Behavioral entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Undiscovered Managers Risk Indicators

The analysis of Undiscovered Managers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Undiscovered Managers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting undiscovered mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Undiscovered Managers

The number of cover stories for Undiscovered Managers depends on current market conditions and Undiscovered Managers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Undiscovered Managers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Undiscovered Managers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Undiscovered Mutual Fund

Undiscovered Managers financial ratios help investors to determine whether Undiscovered Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Undiscovered with respect to the benefits of owning Undiscovered Managers security.
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