Union Electric Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| UEPEM Stock | USD 65.30 0.25 0.38% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Union Electric on the next trading day is expected to be 65.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.84. Union Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Union Electric's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Union Electric hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Union Electric from the perspective of Union Electric response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Union Electric on the next trading day is expected to be 65.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.84. Union Electric after-hype prediction price | USD 65.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Union Electric Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Union price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Union using various technical indicators. When you analyze Union charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Union Electric Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Union Electric on the next trading day is expected to be 65.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 8.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Union Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Union Electric's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Union Electric Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Union Electric | Union Electric Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Union Electric Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Union Electric's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Union Electric's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.18 and 71.22, respectively. We have considered Union Electric's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Union Electric pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Union Electric pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4551 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5137 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1807 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0165 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 70.84 |
Predictive Modules for Union Electric
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Electric. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Union Electric's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Union Electric After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Union Electric at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Union Electric or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Union Electric, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Union Electric Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Union Electric's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Union Electric's historical news coverage. Union Electric's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 59.94 and 70.98, respectively. We have considered Union Electric's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Union Electric is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Union Electric is based on 3 months time horizon.
Union Electric Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Union Electric is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Union Electric backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Union Electric, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 5.52 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
65.30 | 65.46 | 0.25 |
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Union Electric Hype Timeline
Union Electric is at this time traded for 65.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Union is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 65.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Union Electric is about 1156.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 65.37. The company reported the revenue of 3.35 B. Net Income was 521 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.54 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Union Electric to cross-verify your projections.Union Electric Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Union Electric's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Union Electric's future price movements. Getting to know how Union Electric's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Union Electric may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UEPCN | Union Electric | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.26 | 0.00 | 6.07 | |
| IESFY | Interconnection Electric SA | (0.04) | 49 per month | 4.88 | 0.12 | 12.71 | (9.52) | 29.54 | |
| HKVTY | HK Electric Investments | 0.81 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ABZPF | Aboitiz Power | 1.12 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.37 | 41.67 | (12.90) | 23.62 | |
| HPIFY | Huadian Power International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 2.59 | 0.00 | 23.23 | |
| HKCVF | HK Electric Investments | 0.81 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 23.88 | |
| EQUEY | Equatorial Energia SA | 1.12 | 9 per month | 2.75 | 0.07 | 9.20 | (6.72) | 23.84 | |
| EGIEY | Engie Brasil Energia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.97 | 0.07 | 7.12 | (5.01) | 35.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Union Electric
For every potential investor in Union, whether a beginner or expert, Union Electric's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Union Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Union. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Union Electric's price trends.Union Electric Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Union Electric pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Union Electric could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Union Electric by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Union Electric Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Union Electric pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Union Electric shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Union Electric pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Union Electric entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 65.3 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 65.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.25 |
Union Electric Risk Indicators
The analysis of Union Electric's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Union Electric's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting union pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.32 | |||
| Variance | 28.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 38.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 18.8 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Union Electric
The number of cover stories for Union Electric depends on current market conditions and Union Electric's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Union Electric is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Union Electric's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Union Pink Sheet
Union Electric financial ratios help investors to determine whether Union Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Union with respect to the benefits of owning Union Electric security.