Intermediate Term Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

UIITX Fund  USD 9.31  0.02  0.21%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Intermediate Term Bond Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 9.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.15. Intermediate Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Intermediate Term's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Intermediate Term's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Intermediate Term Bond Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Intermediate Term hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Intermediate Term Bond Fund from the perspective of Intermediate Term response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Intermediate Term Bond Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 9.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.15.

Intermediate Term after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.31  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Intermediate Term to cross-verify your projections.

Intermediate Term Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Intermediate price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Intermediate using various technical indicators. When you analyze Intermediate charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Intermediate Term price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Intermediate Term Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Intermediate Term Bond Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 9.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Intermediate Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Intermediate Term's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Intermediate Term Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Intermediate TermIntermediate Term Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Intermediate Term Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Intermediate Term's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Intermediate Term's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.14 and 9.50, respectively. We have considered Intermediate Term's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.31
9.32
Expected Value
9.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intermediate Term mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intermediate Term mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.6053
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0188
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.002
SAESum of the absolute errors1.1459
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Intermediate Term Bond Fund historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Intermediate Term

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intermediate Term Bond. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Intermediate Term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.139.319.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.139.319.49
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Intermediate Term

For every potential investor in Intermediate, whether a beginner or expert, Intermediate Term's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Intermediate Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Intermediate. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Intermediate Term's price trends.

Intermediate Term Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Intermediate Term mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Intermediate Term could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Intermediate Term by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Intermediate Term Bond Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Intermediate Term's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Intermediate Term's current price.

Intermediate Term Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Intermediate Term mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Intermediate Term shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Intermediate Term mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Intermediate Term Bond Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Intermediate Term Risk Indicators

The analysis of Intermediate Term's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Intermediate Term's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting intermediate mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Intermediate Mutual Fund

Intermediate Term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Intermediate Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Intermediate with respect to the benefits of owning Intermediate Term security.
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