Ultrashort Mid Mutual Fund Forward View - 8 Period Moving Average

Key Indicators . 8 Period Moving Average . Mutual Funds . USA . 
Fund . Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund
UIPIX Fund  USD 19.52  -0.19  -0.96%   
8 Period Moving Average is applied to Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The 8 Period Moving Average model projects Ultrashort Mid at 19.84 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This 8 Period Moving Average output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
The eight-period moving average forecast for Ultrashort Mid replaces each daily closing price with the mean of that value and the eight preceding observations. This wider window produces a smoother series that filters out short-term volatility.

8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2026

Over a 90-day horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average model forecasts Ultrashort Mid at 19.84 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 39.36 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Ultrashort Mid's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ultrashort Mid  Ultrashort Mid Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This forecast for Ultrashort Mid frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. Downside is estimated near 17.60 and upside near 22.08. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
19.52
17.60
Downside
19.84
Expected Value
22.08
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 8 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Ultrashort Mid mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.2126
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1208
MADMean absolute deviation0.7426
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0339
SAESum of the absolute errors39.36
The eight-period window effectively dampens daily peaks and troughs in Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund price data, making the underlying trend more visible. However, the model can only be used reliably for one or two periods ahead. A flat forecast line in a trending market indicates the smoothing window is too wide for the current price dynamics.

Other Forecasting Options for Ultrashort Mid

The distribution of Ultrashort Mid's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Ultrashort Mid's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Ultrashort Mid's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in Ultrashort Mid.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Ultrashort Mid Comparable Funds

The related funds below provide a category-based comparison set for Ultrashort Mid's. Funds are typically compared on holdings mix, category returns, risk measures, and implementation cost rather than on operating-company margins.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ultrashort Mid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Ultrashort Mid mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Ultrashort Mid. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating Ultrashort Mid sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in Ultrashort Mid.
Rate Of Daily Change0.99
Day Median Price19.52
Day Typical Price19.52
Price Action Indicator-0.1
Period Momentum Indicator-0.19
Relative Strength Index40.63

Ultrashort Mid Risk Indicators

Assessing Ultrashort Mid's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for ultrashort mid mutual fund. The level of risk embedded in Ultrashort Mid's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing Ultrashort Mid's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.
Mean Deviation1.67
Standard Deviation2.22
Variance4.95
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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