Innovator SAMPP ETF Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| UJAN ETF | USD 44.89 0.11 0.25% |
Polynomial Regression is applied to Innovator SAMPP 500's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The Polynomial Regression model projects Innovator SAMPP at 45.35 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This Polynomial Regression output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 11th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Innovator SAMPP at 45.35 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 17.76 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Innovator SAMPP's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Innovator SAMPP | Innovator SAMPP Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Innovator SAMPP's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The forecast band spans 44.92 to 45.79. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Innovator SAMPP ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0322 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2912 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0067 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.7629 |
Other Forecasting Options for Innovator SAMPP
Innovator SAMPP's daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Innovator SAMPP often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Innovator SAMPP Comparable Funds
The instruments listed below are comparable funds for Innovator SAMPP and provide a practical reference set. This peer set gives investors a way to compare Innovator SAMPP's structure and outcomes against similar portfolio vehicles. Differences across peer funds often reflect mandate, region, income policy, or leverage choices.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Innovator SAMPP Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Innovator SAMPP ETF provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Innovator SAMPP.
Innovator SAMPP Risk Indicators
Assessing Innovator SAMPP's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for innovator sampp etf. The level of risk embedded in Innovator SAMPP's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3452 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3234 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4561 | |||
| Variance | 0.2081 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1877 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1046 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.