Universal Media Pink Sheet Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| UMGP Stock | USD 0.04 0 2.63% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Universal Media Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.75. Universal Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Universal |
Universal Media 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Universal Media Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Universal Media Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Universal Media | Universal Media Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Universal Media Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Universal Media's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0004 and 17.72, respectively. We have considered Universal Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal Media pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal Media pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 73.6971 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0164 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0183 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.5057 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.7496 |
Predictive Modules for Universal Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Media Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Universal Media
For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal Media's price trends.Universal Media Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal Media pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal Media could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal Media by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Universal Media Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Universal Media's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Universal Media's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Universal Media Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal Media pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal Media pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal Media Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Universal Media Risk Indicators
The analysis of Universal Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 11.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 15.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 17.88 | |||
| Variance | 319.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 402.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 237.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (15.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Universal Media
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Universal Media position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Universal Media will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Universal Pink Sheet
| 0.79 | SSNLF | Samsung Electronics | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | CVX | Chevron Corp Fiscal Year End 7th of February 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase Fiscal Year End 10th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | HPQ | HP Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | WMT | Walmart Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Universal Media could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Universal Media when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Universal Media - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Universal Media Group to buy it.
The correlation of Universal Media is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Universal Media moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Universal Media Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Universal Media can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Universal Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Universal Media's price analysis, check to measure Universal Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Media is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.