Urbana Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| URNAF Stock | USD 6.83 0.11 1.64% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Urbana on the next trading day is expected to be 6.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.34. Urbana Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Urbana's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Urbana's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Urbana hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Urbana from the perspective of Urbana response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Urbana on the next trading day is expected to be 6.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.34. Urbana after-hype prediction price | USD 6.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Urbana |
Urbana Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Urbana price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Urbana using various technical indicators. When you analyze Urbana charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Urbana Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Urbana on the next trading day is expected to be 6.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Urbana Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Urbana's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Urbana Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Urbana | Urbana Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Urbana Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Urbana's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Urbana's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.17 and 8.19, respectively. We have considered Urbana's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Urbana pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Urbana pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0558 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0876 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.3436 |
Predictive Modules for Urbana
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Urbana. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Urbana After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Urbana at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Urbana or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Urbana, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Urbana Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Urbana's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Urbana's historical news coverage. Urbana's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.76 and 8.78, respectively. We have considered Urbana's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Urbana is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Urbana is based on 3 months time horizon.
Urbana Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Urbana is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Urbana backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Urbana, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 2.01 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 12 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.83 | 6.77 | 0.88 |
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Urbana Hype Timeline
Urbana is at this time traded for 6.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Urbana is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.77. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.88%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Urbana is about 20100.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.83. About 60.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.6. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Urbana last dividend was issued on the 17th of January 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Urbana to cross-verify your projections.Urbana Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Urbana's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Urbana's future price movements. Getting to know how Urbana's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Urbana may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DDWWF | Dividend Growth Split | (0.16) | 6 per month | 9.29 | 0.06 | 31.07 | (23.70) | 66.76 | |
| TSRUF | Pacific Current Group | (0.16) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.87 | |
| GMPXF | RF Capital Group | (0.16) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.38) | 0.21 | 0.00 | 1.25 | |
| VEFFF | VEF AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | |
| CLIUF | City of London | (0.16) | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.71 | |
| PASMF | Premier Miton Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.16 | |
| IPXAF | Impax Asset Management | 0.70 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 2.45 | (6.42) | 46.84 | |
| TRUX | Truxton | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.38 | 0.01 | 2.75 | (2.92) | 9.79 | |
| APPCF | APAC Resources Limited | (0.16) | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 88.48 | |
| FNCSF | North American Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.88 | 0.09 | 3.95 | (3.65) | 25.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for Urbana
For every potential investor in Urbana, whether a beginner or expert, Urbana's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Urbana Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Urbana. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Urbana's price trends.Urbana Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Urbana pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Urbana could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Urbana by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Urbana Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Urbana pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Urbana shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Urbana pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Urbana entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Urbana Risk Indicators
The analysis of Urbana's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Urbana's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting urbana pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Variance | 4.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Urbana
The number of cover stories for Urbana depends on current market conditions and Urbana's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Urbana is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Urbana's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Urbana Pink Sheet
Urbana financial ratios help investors to determine whether Urbana Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Urbana with respect to the benefits of owning Urbana security.