ProShares UltraPro ETF Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| URTY ETF | USD 74.85 3.56 4.99% |
The 4 Period Moving Average output for ProShares UltraPro Russell2000 is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects ProShares UltraPro at 73.34 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. ProShares UltraPro's 4 Period Moving Average forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.
4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 7th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts ProShares UltraPro at 73.34 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 2.37 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 137.27 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of ProShares UltraPro's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ProShares UltraPro | ProShares UltraPro Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
ProShares UltraPro's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The projected band runs from roughly 69.30 on the downside to about 77.38 on the upside. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for ProShares UltraPro ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7051 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3729 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.3666 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0399 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 137.265 |
Other Forecasting Options for ProShares UltraPro
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of ProShares ETF price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When ProShares UltraPro's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in ProShares UltraPro's returns tend to persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.ProShares UltraPro Related Equities
ProShares UltraPro's market space within the Trading--Leveraged Equity space is illustrated by the firms listed below. Market cap and total value checks frame ProShares UltraPro's size within the competitive field.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ProShares UltraPro Market Strength Events
Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for ProShares UltraPro reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing ProShares UltraPro near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for ProShares UltraPro.
| Accumulation Distribution | 21938.17 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.618182 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 74.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 74.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.58 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 3.56 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 62.64 |
ProShares UltraPro Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for ProShares UltraPro quantifies how much price variability the ETF has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in ProShares UltraPro have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as ProShares UltraPro's price.
| Mean Deviation | 3.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.08 | |||
| Variance | 16.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.04 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
More Resources for ProShares ETF Analysis
For ProShares UltraPro, market price and NAV represent two distinct lenses on the same underlying portfolio. The assessment of ProShares UltraPro incorporates fund costs, portfolio composition, and performance relative to its benchmark.
ProShares UltraPro's quoted price and NAV often reflect different short-term dynamics. ProShares UltraPro's market quotation reflects the latest level where a willing buyer met a willing seller.