00131LAF2 Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 00131LAF2 | 97.10 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AIA 39 06 APR 28 on the next trading day is expected to be 96.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.99. 00131LAF2 Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 00131LAF2 stock prices and determine the direction of AIA 39 06 APR 28's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 00131LAF2's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
00131LAF2 |
00131LAF2 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AIA 39 06 APR 28 on the next trading day is expected to be 96.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 00131LAF2 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 00131LAF2's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
00131LAF2 Bond Forecast Pattern
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 00131LAF2 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 00131LAF2 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 102.989 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6224 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0065 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.9898 |
Predictive Modules for 00131LAF2
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AIA 06 APR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.00131LAF2 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 00131LAF2 bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 00131LAF2 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 00131LAF2 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
00131LAF2 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 00131LAF2 bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 00131LAF2 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 00131LAF2 bond market strength indicators, traders can identify AIA 39 06 APR 28 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
00131LAF2 Risk Indicators
The analysis of 00131LAF2's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 00131LAF2's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 00131laf2 bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of AIA 39 06 APR 28 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5396 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4178 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7256 | |||
| Variance | 0.5265 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2738 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1745 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in 00131LAF2 Bond
00131LAF2 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 00131LAF2 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 00131LAF2 with respect to the benefits of owning 00131LAF2 security.