BHCCN Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

071734AQ0   75.00  23.00  23.47%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BHCCN 11 30 SEP 28 on the next trading day is expected to be 73.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.72. BHCCN Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BHCCN stock prices and determine the direction of BHCCN 11 30 SEP 28's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of BHCCN's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for BHCCN works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

BHCCN Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BHCCN 11 30 SEP 28 on the next trading day is expected to be 73.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35, mean absolute percentage error of 11.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BHCCN Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BHCCN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BHCCN Bond Forecast Pattern

BHCCN Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BHCCN's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BHCCN's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 70.56 and 77.05, respectively. We have considered BHCCN's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
75.00
73.81
Expected Value
77.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BHCCN bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BHCCN bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.6396
MADMean absolute deviation1.3453
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0163
SAESum of the absolute errors80.7202
When BHCCN 11 30 SEP 28 prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any BHCCN 11 30 SEP 28 trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent BHCCN observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for BHCCN

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BHCCN 11 30. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
71.7575.0078.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
69.5072.7576.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
78.2688.7699.26
Details

Other Forecasting Options for BHCCN

For every potential investor in BHCCN, whether a beginner or expert, BHCCN's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BHCCN Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BHCCN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BHCCN's price trends.

BHCCN Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BHCCN bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BHCCN could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BHCCN by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BHCCN 11 30 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BHCCN's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BHCCN's current price.

BHCCN Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BHCCN bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BHCCN shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BHCCN bond market strength indicators, traders can identify BHCCN 11 30 SEP 28 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BHCCN Risk Indicators

The analysis of BHCCN's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BHCCN's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bhccn bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of BHCCN 11 30 SEP 28 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in BHCCN Bond

BHCCN financial ratios help investors to determine whether BHCCN Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in BHCCN with respect to the benefits of owning BHCCN security.