EXELON Forecast - Simple Regression
| 30161NAS0 | 93.20 0.26 0.28% |
EXELON Bond outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast EXELON stock prices and determine the direction of EXELON P 51's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of EXELON's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength indicator of EXELON's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the bond is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 27
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using EXELON hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of EXELON P 51 from the perspective of EXELON response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of EXELON P 51 on the next trading day is expected to be 92.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.32. EXELON after-hype prediction price | $ 89.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as bond price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
EXELON |
EXELON Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine EXELON price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for EXELON using various technical indicators. When you analyze EXELON charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
EXELON Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of EXELON P 51 on the next trading day is expected to be 92.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36, mean absolute percentage error of 3.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EXELON Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EXELON's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
EXELON Bond Forecast Pattern
| Backtest EXELON | EXELON Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
EXELON Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting EXELON's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EXELON's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 91.35 and 94.13, respectively. We have considered EXELON's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EXELON bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EXELON bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.2547 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.36 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0147 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 84.3221 |
Predictive Modules for EXELON
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EXELON P 51. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.EXELON After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of EXELON at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in EXELON or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Bond prices, such as prices of EXELON, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
EXELON Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting EXELON's bond value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on EXELON's historical news coverage. EXELON's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 88.45 and 91.03, respectively. We have considered EXELON's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
EXELON is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of EXELON P 51 is based on 3 months time horizon.
EXELON Bond Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Corporate Bond such as EXELON is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading EXELON backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Bond price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with EXELON, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.39 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
93.20 | 89.74 | 0.00 |
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EXELON Hype Timeline
EXELON P 51 is at this time traded for 93.20. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.25. EXELON is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on EXELON is about 54.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 92.95. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EXELON to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade EXELON Bond refer to our How to Trade EXELON Bond guide.EXELON Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to EXELON's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict EXELON's future price movements. Getting to know how EXELON's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how EXELON may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRM | Salesforce | (6.68) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.66 | (4.75) | 12.37 | |
| NSMG | National Storm Management | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| STIVV | Strive Asset Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.85 | 0.04 | 2.59 | (2.10) | 11.00 | |
| ZZHGY | ZhongAn Online P | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| OGAA | Organic Agricultural | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ECG | Everus Construction Group | (0.36) | 10 per month | 3.30 | 0.11 | 5.15 | (5.73) | 30.95 | |
| ASNHF | Avidus Management Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| STRL | Sterling Construction | (13.34) | 23 per month | 3.66 | 0.1 | 5.34 | (6.88) | 14.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for EXELON
For every potential investor in EXELON, whether a beginner or expert, EXELON's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EXELON Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EXELON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EXELON's price trends.EXELON Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EXELON bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EXELON could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EXELON by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
EXELON Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EXELON bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EXELON shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EXELON bond market strength indicators, traders can identify EXELON P 51 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 93.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 93.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.26 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 27.89 |
EXELON Risk Indicators
The analysis of EXELON's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EXELON's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exelon bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of EXELON P 51 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for EXELON
The number of cover stories for EXELON depends on current market conditions and EXELON's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that EXELON is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about EXELON's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in EXELON Bond
EXELON financial ratios help investors to determine whether EXELON Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in EXELON with respect to the benefits of owning EXELON security.