SVELEV Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 817826AG5 | 60.30 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SVELEV 28 10 FEB 51 on the next trading day is expected to be 59.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.95. SVELEV Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SVELEV stock prices and determine the direction of SVELEV 28 10 FEB 51's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SVELEV's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
SVELEV |
SVELEV Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SVELEV 28 10 FEB 51 on the next trading day is expected to be 59.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SVELEV Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SVELEV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SVELEV Bond Forecast Pattern
SVELEV Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SVELEV's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SVELEV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.19 and 60.08, respectively. We have considered SVELEV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SVELEV bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SVELEV bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8999 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4582 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.9516 |
Predictive Modules for SVELEV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SVELEV 28 10. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for SVELEV
For every potential investor in SVELEV, whether a beginner or expert, SVELEV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SVELEV Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SVELEV. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SVELEV's price trends.SVELEV Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SVELEV bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SVELEV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SVELEV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SVELEV 28 10 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SVELEV's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SVELEV's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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SVELEV Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SVELEV bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SVELEV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SVELEV bond market strength indicators, traders can identify SVELEV 28 10 FEB 51 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SVELEV Risk Indicators
The analysis of SVELEV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SVELEV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting svelev bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of SVELEV 28 10 FEB 51 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6891 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9414 | |||
| Variance | 0.8863 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in SVELEV Bond
SVELEV financial ratios help investors to determine whether SVELEV Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SVELEV with respect to the benefits of owning SVELEV security.