PEAR TREE Mutual Fund Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| USBOX Fund | USD 20.50 -0.20 -0.97% |
The 4 Period Moving Average output for Pear Tree Quality is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate a tighter fit to recent price behavior. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects PEAR TREE at 20.67 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. PEAR TREE's 4 Period Moving Average forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.
4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts PEAR TREE at 20.67 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 12.34 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks PEAR TREE's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PEAR TREE | PEAR TREE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for PEAR TREE frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The model places downside around 19.65 and upside around 21.70 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for PEAR TREE mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.1654 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.021 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2165 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0111 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for PEAR TREE
Relative Strength Index values for PEAR TREE measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in PEAR TREE's returns informs position size and stop-loss calibration. Candlestick pattern analysis of PEAR TREE Mutual Fund daily data reveals short-term reversal or continuation signals. Identifying these patterns in PEAR TREE Mutual Fund data supports better trade timing.PEAR TREE Comparable Funds
The related funds below provide a category-based comparison set for PEAR TREE's. This peer set gives investors a way to compare PEAR TREE's structure and outcomes against similar portfolio vehicles. Category-relative analysis helps separate fund-specific behavior from broader market moves affecting the whole group. The resulting view is more helpful for fund analysis than a generic industry-company comparison.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PEAR TREE Market Strength Events
Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for PEAR TREE reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing PEAR TREE near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for PEAR TREE. Combine market strength readings with the price and volatility measures above for a more complete analytical picture of PEAR TREE.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 20.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.10 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.20 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.72 |
PEAR TREE Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for PEAR TREE quantifies how much price variability the mutual fund has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in PEAR TREE have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as PEAR TREE's price. Elevated expected shortfall for PEAR TREE suggests that tail-risk hedging may be more important than average-case optimization.
| Mean Deviation | 0.785 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8754 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Variance | 1.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8307 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7664 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.90 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.