US GoldMining Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| USGOW Stock | 2.65 0.78 41.71% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of US GoldMining Warrant on the next trading day is expected to be 2.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.27. USGOW Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of US GoldMining's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using US GoldMining hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of US GoldMining Warrant from the perspective of US GoldMining response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of US GoldMining Warrant on the next trading day is expected to be 2.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.27. US GoldMining after-hype prediction price | USD 2.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of US GoldMining to cross-verify your projections. US GoldMining Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine USGOW price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for USGOW using various technical indicators. When you analyze USGOW charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the US GoldMining's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 4.5 M | Current Value 3.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 3 M |
US GoldMining Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of US GoldMining Warrant on the next trading day is expected to be 2.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict USGOW Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that US GoldMining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
US GoldMining Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest US GoldMining | US GoldMining Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
US GoldMining Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting US GoldMining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. US GoldMining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 24.89, respectively. We have considered US GoldMining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of US GoldMining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent US GoldMining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4142 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1192 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1718 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.2731 |
Predictive Modules for US GoldMining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US GoldMining Warrant. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.US GoldMining After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of US GoldMining at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in US GoldMining or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of US GoldMining, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
US GoldMining Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting US GoldMining's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on US GoldMining's historical news coverage. US GoldMining's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 24.54, respectively. We have considered US GoldMining's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
US GoldMining is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of US GoldMining Warrant is based on 3 months time horizon.
US GoldMining Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as US GoldMining is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading US GoldMining backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with US GoldMining, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.24 | 22.11 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.65 | 2.43 | 29.95 |
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US GoldMining Hype Timeline
US GoldMining Warrant is at this time traded for 2.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. USGOW is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 2.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 29.95%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 2.24%. The volatility of related hype on US GoldMining is about 85983.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.59. US GoldMining Warrant has accumulated 109.39 K in total debt. Note, when we think about US GoldMining's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of US GoldMining to cross-verify your projections.US GoldMining Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to US GoldMining's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict US GoldMining's future price movements. Getting to know how US GoldMining's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how US GoldMining may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVMNY | Evolution Mining Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.75 | 0.11 | 5.61 | (6.72) | 22.71 | |
| EGMMF | Eagle Mountain Mining | 0.19 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.02 | |
| SNDVF | Scandinavian Tobacco Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2.07 | (0.07) | 6.18 | |
| PIUTQ | Paiute Oil Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HGMCF | Harmony Gold Mining | 0.13 | 4 per month | 1.72 | 0.04 | 4.69 | (3.27) | 20.37 | |
| REXR | Rexford Industrial Realty | (0.58) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.08 | (1.96) | 6.35 | |
| LODE | Comstock Mining | 0.08 | 9 per month | 4.20 | 0.09 | 8.36 | (6.44) | 18.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for US GoldMining
For every potential investor in USGOW, whether a beginner or expert, US GoldMining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. USGOW Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in USGOW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying US GoldMining's price trends.US GoldMining Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with US GoldMining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of US GoldMining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing US GoldMining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
US GoldMining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how US GoldMining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading US GoldMining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying US GoldMining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify US GoldMining Warrant entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
US GoldMining Risk Indicators
The analysis of US GoldMining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in US GoldMining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting usgow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 13.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 11.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 21.63 | |||
| Variance | 467.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 169.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 126.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (18.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for US GoldMining
The number of cover stories for US GoldMining depends on current market conditions and US GoldMining's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that US GoldMining is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about US GoldMining's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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US GoldMining Short Properties
US GoldMining's future price predictability will typically decrease when US GoldMining's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of US GoldMining Warrant often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential US GoldMining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. US GoldMining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.9 M |
Additional Tools for USGOW Stock Analysis
When running US GoldMining's price analysis, check to measure US GoldMining's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy US GoldMining is operating at the current time. Most of US GoldMining's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of US GoldMining's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move US GoldMining's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of US GoldMining to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.