VictoryShares Small Etf Forecast - Simple Regression
| USVM Etf | USD 96.49 1.41 1.44% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of VictoryShares Small Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 96.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.64. VictoryShares Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength momentum indicator of VictoryShares Small's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using VictoryShares Small hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VictoryShares Small Mid from the perspective of VictoryShares Small response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of VictoryShares Small Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 96.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.64. VictoryShares Small after-hype prediction price | USD 97.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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VictoryShares Small Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VictoryShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VictoryShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze VictoryShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VictoryShares Small Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of VictoryShares Small Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 96.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 1.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VictoryShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VictoryShares Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VictoryShares Small Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VictoryShares Small | VictoryShares Small Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VictoryShares Small Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VictoryShares Small's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VictoryShares Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 95.40 and 97.12, respectively. We have considered VictoryShares Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VictoryShares Small etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VictoryShares Small etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5957 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9777 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.6399 |
Predictive Modules for VictoryShares Small
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VictoryShares Small Mid. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VictoryShares Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VictoryShares Small After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VictoryShares Small at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VictoryShares Small or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of VictoryShares Small, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VictoryShares Small Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VictoryShares Small's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VictoryShares Small's historical news coverage. VictoryShares Small's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 96.92 and 98.66, respectively. We have considered VictoryShares Small's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VictoryShares Small is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VictoryShares Small Mid is based on 3 months time horizon.
VictoryShares Small Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as VictoryShares Small is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VictoryShares Small backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VictoryShares Small, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 0.86 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 4 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
96.49 | 97.79 | 0.11 |
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VictoryShares Small Hype Timeline
VictoryShares Small Mid is at this time traded for 96.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. VictoryShares is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 97.79. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 104.88%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on VictoryShares Small is about 194.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 96.43. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VictoryShares Small to cross-verify your projections.VictoryShares Small Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VictoryShares Small's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VictoryShares Small's future price movements. Getting to know how VictoryShares Small's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VictoryShares Small may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HFXI | IQ 50 Percent | (0.28) | 1 per month | 0.49 | 0.06 | 1.16 | (1.14) | 3.19 | |
| OIH | VanEck Oil Services | 2.67 | 4 per month | 1.32 | 0.21 | 4.38 | (2.90) | 9.53 | |
| LGLV | SPDR SSGA Large | (1.25) | 3 per month | 0.46 | (0.06) | 0.96 | (0.89) | 2.46 | |
| FTA | First Trust Large | (0.28) | 29 per month | 0.42 | 0.06 | 1.50 | (1.06) | 3.31 | |
| FVAL | Fidelity Value Factor | (0.33) | 5 per month | 0.63 | 0.01 | 1.27 | (1.16) | 3.49 | |
| FNX | First Trust Mid | (3.83) | 4 per month | 0.80 | 0.04 | 1.79 | (1.47) | 3.88 | |
| CGIE | Capital Group International | 0.34 | 2 per month | 0.69 | (0.01) | 1.26 | (1.20) | 3.45 | |
| QQXT | First Trust NASDAQ 100 | (1.20) | 1 per month | 0.56 | (0.08) | 1.13 | (1.02) | 2.86 | |
| GEM | Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta | 0.17 | 10 per month | 0.56 | 0.06 | 1.35 | (1.08) | 3.27 | |
| BKIE | BNY Mellon International | (0.43) | 3 per month | 0.61 | 0.02 | 1.17 | (1.18) | 3.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for VictoryShares Small
For every potential investor in VictoryShares, whether a beginner or expert, VictoryShares Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VictoryShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VictoryShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VictoryShares Small's price trends.VictoryShares Small Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VictoryShares Small etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VictoryShares Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VictoryShares Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VictoryShares Small Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VictoryShares Small etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VictoryShares Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VictoryShares Small etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VictoryShares Small Mid entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VictoryShares Small Risk Indicators
The analysis of VictoryShares Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VictoryShares Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting victoryshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6717 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5862 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.849 | |||
| Variance | 0.7207 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5911 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3436 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VictoryShares Small
The number of cover stories for VictoryShares Small depends on current market conditions and VictoryShares Small's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VictoryShares Small is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VictoryShares Small's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VictoryShares Small to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
The market value of VictoryShares Small Mid is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VictoryShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VictoryShares Small's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VictoryShares Small's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VictoryShares Small's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VictoryShares Small's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VictoryShares Small's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VictoryShares Small is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VictoryShares Small's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.