Reaves Utility Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

UTG Fund  USD 37.90  0.21  0.55%   
Reaves Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Reaves Utility's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 31st of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Reaves Utility's share price is at 54. This usually implies that the fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Reaves Utility, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Reaves Utility's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Reaves Utility and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Reaves Utility's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Reaves Utility If, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Reaves Utility hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Reaves Utility If from the perspective of Reaves Utility response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Reaves Utility If on the next trading day is expected to be 37.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.51.

Reaves Utility after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 37.9  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Reaves Utility to cross-verify your projections.

Reaves Utility Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Reaves price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Reaves using various technical indicators. When you analyze Reaves charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Reaves Utility works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Reaves Utility Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Reaves Utility If on the next trading day is expected to be 37.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Reaves Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Reaves Utility's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Reaves Utility Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Reaves Utility  Reaves Utility Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Reaves Utility Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Reaves Utility's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Reaves Utility's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.89 and 38.97, respectively. We have considered Reaves Utility's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.90
37.93
Expected Value
38.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Reaves Utility fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Reaves Utility fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0685
MADMean absolute deviation0.3085
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0083
SAESum of the absolute errors18.511
When Reaves Utility If prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Reaves Utility If trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Reaves Utility observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Reaves Utility

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Reaves Utility If. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Reaves Utility's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.8637.9038.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.6437.6838.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
36.1937.3238.44
Details

Reaves Utility After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Reaves Utility at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Reaves Utility or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Reaves Utility, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Reaves Utility Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Reaves Utility's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Reaves Utility's historical news coverage. Reaves Utility's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.86 and 38.94, respectively. We have considered Reaves Utility's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
37.90
37.90
After-hype Price
38.94
Upside
Reaves Utility is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Reaves Utility If is based on 3 months time horizon.

Reaves Utility Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Reaves Utility is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Reaves Utility backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Reaves Utility, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
1.04
 0.00  
  0.04 
2 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
37.90
37.90
0.00 
520.00  
Notes

Reaves Utility Hype Timeline

On the 31st of January Reaves Utility If is traded for 37.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Reaves is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Reaves Utility is about 53.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.94. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.89. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Reaves Utility If last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Reaves Utility to cross-verify your projections.

Reaves Utility Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Reaves Utility's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Reaves Utility's future price movements. Getting to know how Reaves Utility's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Reaves Utility may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
JMVCXPerkins Mid Cap 0.00 0 per month 0.34  0.14  1.69 (1.16) 11.00 
JCNCXJanus Trarian Fund 0.20 4 per month 0.00 (0.12) 1.79 (2.08) 4.58 
JDPNXPerkins Mid Cap 9.47 1 per month 0.33  0.14  1.68 (1.12) 10.84 
JDPRXPerkins Mid Cap 0.00 0 per month 0.34  0.14  1.65 (1.18) 10.83 
JMVAXPerkins Mid Cap 0.03 1 per month 0.34  0.14  1.80 (1.15) 10.88 
JCNRXJanus Trarian Fund 0.20 1 per month 0.00 (0.12) 1.77 (2.06) 4.61 
NEANuveen Amt Free Municipal 0.03 6 per month 0.35 (0.02) 0.87 (0.78) 2.56 
CSQCalamos Strategic Total 0.01 2 per month 0.89 (0.01) 1.46 (1.47) 4.16 
BEGRXFranklin Mutual Beacon 9.29 4 per month 0.00  0.16  1.35 (0.86) 7.24 
JCNIXJanus Trarian Fund 0.37 1 per month 1.09  0.03  1.80 (2.08) 14.44 

Other Forecasting Options for Reaves Utility

For every potential investor in Reaves, whether a beginner or expert, Reaves Utility's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Reaves Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Reaves. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Reaves Utility's price trends.

Reaves Utility Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Reaves Utility fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Reaves Utility could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Reaves Utility by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Reaves Utility Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Reaves Utility fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Reaves Utility shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Reaves Utility fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Reaves Utility If entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Reaves Utility Risk Indicators

The analysis of Reaves Utility's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Reaves Utility's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting reaves fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Reaves Utility

The number of cover stories for Reaves Utility depends on current market conditions and Reaves Utility's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Reaves Utility is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Reaves Utility's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Reaves Fund

Reaves Utility financial ratios help investors to determine whether Reaves Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Reaves with respect to the benefits of owning Reaves Utility security.
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